When the Virginia basketball team lost junior guard Justin Anderson to a finger injury a week and a half ago, I wasn’t sure what to think. Obviously losing a player ranked second on the team in points per game and third in minutes per game is not a positive. But given our system-based offense and defense, I was hopeful the damages would be minimal.
Three games later, the now nationally-famous pack line defense has proven a million times over that the system far outweighs the contributions of an individual player. Including the Louisville game — in which Anderson contributed only 16 minutes and two points before his injury — the Cavaliers have held opponents to 50.8 points a game in their last four contests, which is actually slightly lower than their points against average when Anderson was at full health.
The offense, however, is a completely different story.
From the eye-test alone, things just haven’t seemed right on the attack since Anderson, a Wooden Award Midseason Watch List selectee, went down. Shots don’t seem to be falling, turnovers seem relatively rampant and the team often goes into lulls where nothing gives. What happened to the highly efficient Virginia offense I was praising just a few weeks ago?
The numbers, unfortunately, mostly back up that sentiment. The chart (to the right) gives a good snapshot of how Virginia has fared on the offensive end in the games without Anderson, and the stats aren’t pretty.
The most concerning thing here is the efficiency ratings, which equate to points scored per 100 possessions. In those first three games without Anderson, the numbers are way lower than the season average. While that stat ticked up Monday against Pitt, it should be noted that the Panthers have one of the worst defenses in the country, sitting last in the ACC and at No. 200 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings.The good news is that the turnovers aren’t as bad as I thought, but a lot of that has to do with the incredible performance we put up against Louisville. That’s about the only consolation I found.
Because the Cavaliers’ turnovers and offensive boards have been only slightly worse than average during the past four games, it looks like shooting percentage has been the biggest factor leading to the lower efficiency. Scarier yet has been shooting from outside. Since losing Anderson — who ranked as the top three-point shooter in the conference — the Cavaliers have shot 22 percent from beyond the arc, compared to 36.5 percent on the season as a whole.
Those long lulls without scoring I noticed are also a grave reality. One of the most impressive statistics coming out of Monday’s game was that Virginia held Pitt scoreless for three separate five-minute spans. However, Virginia was held scoreless for three separate four-minute spans, including a five-minute scoring drought of their own. Over the past four games, Virginia has been held scoreless for six periods of four-minutes or longer, and 13 periods of three-minutes or longer.
The good news is that there are several factors favoring Virginia looking ahead at the remainder of the season: time, a relatively light schedule and arguably the best defense in the county.
Time and a light schedule go hand in hand. A realistic return estimate for Anderson would be the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and an optimistic estimate would be the ACC Tournament. Those games matter way more than anything else in the regular season, and at this point, it seems like we’ll have Anderson back to have a shot at some hardware.
But even though Anderson won’t be back for the regular season, the remaining schedule is light enough to give us an extremely good shot at the top seed in the ACC Tournament and an NCAA one-seed. Our next three games are against ACC-bottom dwellers Florida State, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech, giving Virginia some time to tighten up the offense before facing off against Syracuse and Louisville on the road. The Cavaliers already have a two-game cushion in their quest to earn at least a share of the ACC regular season title, and I suspect that we could even lose three of the next five and still earn and one or two seed in both the ACC and NCAA tournaments.
However, I wouldn’t even worry about any of those “what-ifs,” simply because the Virginia defense is still playing as the best unit in the country. Pittsburgh came in last night just one game removed from putting up 89 on No. 12 North Carolina, boasting the No. 19 offense nationally in KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency. None of that mattered, as Virginia held them to 15 points in the first half, and 49 total points — at least five of which I would say were scored in garbage time.
So get well soon, Justin. Until then, I look forward to watching the Cavaliers continue to strangle teams with their defense.
And hopefully they also show a little more spark on offense.
Matt Comey is a weekly Sports Columnist for The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at m.comey@cavalierdaily.com. Follow him on Twitter @matthewcomey.
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