The NCAA men’s basketball tournament selection committee is a cruel, terrible organization.
I’m not talking about how Duke earned a one seed over Virginia and Arizona — two teams that have better records than Duke and actually won a conference title. And I’m not even talking about the Committee’s decision to include traditional powerhouses UCLA and Texas over teams that were unequivocally better this year, like Temple and Colorado State.
What really gets under my skin is the Committee's decision to set up a Round of 32 match-up between second seeded Virginia and seventh seeded Michigan State — the team that knocked us out in the Sweet Sixteen of last year’s tournament.
March 28, 2014 was a dark time for Charlottesville. Breaking the hearts of hundreds of drunk college kids on a Friday night, all at once, is not exactly a recipe for success. You could hear the yelling, screaming and sobbing from the Corner all the way down 14th Street. Some guys even decided to burn a couch in the middle of the street to express their agony. Even I sustained some mild injuries from the trees I kicked and the stop signs I slapped on my way home.
The 2014 Spartans were a great team, but coming off our first ACC Championship in decades, Virginia fans felt unstoppable. We weren’t ready to lose to a four seed — though most of us didn’t realize at the time that the four seed held the No. 1 ranking in the country for three weeks at the beginning of the season, and after overcoming mid-season injuries, the Spartans ran away with the Big Ten Conference Championship.
The Sweet Sixteen game was close, wire-to-wire, and Michigan State squeaked out a two point win. The Cavaliers were in a position to pull out a close victory, and just couldn’t come through. AND TEVEN WAS FOULED!
The set-up this year feels eerily similar. No. 23 Michigan State seems to have underperformed during the middle of the season, and was drastically under-seeded in my opinion — and in Nate Silver’s opinion. The Spartans (23-11, 12-6 Big Ten), while without any marquee wins, were one missed out-of-bounds call from upsetting No. 3 Wisconsin on Sunday and winning their second straight conference championship.
But maybe my worries are an overreaction — one triggered by emotional and physical trauma sustained a year ago. Multiple Michigan State starters last season — forward Adreian Payne and guards Gary Harris and Keith Appling — have moved on to the NBA, significantly diminishing that team’s talent. They still have star senior point guard Branden Dawson, who led the Spartans in scoring against Virginia last season and was named to the All-Big Ten second team this year. They also return junior guard Denzel Valentine and senior guard Travis Trice, who both received third-team All-Big Ten honors this year, but the talent drops off there and doesn’t come close to stacking up to their loaded roster of last season.
The Spartans have only two wins over ranked opponents this year, coming against then-No. 23 Ohio State — who is now unranked — and No. 12 Maryland, who beat Michigan State twice earlier in the year. They also boast losses against Texas Southern, Nebraska and Minnesota, none of which were exactly elite college basketball teams this year.
KenPom has the Spartans at No. 17, uncomfortably right between Louisville and North Carolina — better known as the last two teams to beat Virginia. What’s promising, however, is that the Spartans are No. 53 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Yes, they have a great offense, but I’m much more confident in the Cavaliers’ ability to stop high-quality offense than to score against high-quality defense.
Was it fair for Michigan State — ranked No. 23 and No. 22 in the AP and Coaches polls, respectively, and No. 17 and No. 18 in KenPom and BPI, respectively — to earn a seven seed? Absolutely not. But we knew we’d have to beat tough teams to advance in the tournament anyway, and I’m sure Michigan State is worse off having to play Virginia in the second round than Virginia is worse off having to play Michigan State.
I truly believe Virginia will come out this weekend as good as ever. It may sound cliche at this point, but I really think junior guard Justin Anderson’s play will improve drastically. With some more work on his shot, Anderson will provide an offensive spark that we’ve desperately needed for the past month and half. The days of this Virginia team running through teams like Maryland, Notre Dame and UNC seem far gone, but we finally have the key piece we needed to return to that level of play.
Most importantly, however: in Tony we trust. I have no business doubting Bennett’s ability to coach a team up after a loss and complete every preparation imaginable to get ready for this weekend’s games. Overall, on paper and on the court, Virginia is better than Michigan State.
It would feel incredible to avenge that Sunday loss to the Spartans — our team and our fan base deserve it. But part of me secretly wishes that Georgia pulls the upset over Michigan State. And I know in my heart we’re better than the Spartans — I just don’t know if my heart can handle watching it.
Matt Comey is a weekly Sports Columnist for The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at m.comey@cavalierdaily.com. Follow him on Twitter @matthewcomey.
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