Democratic gubernatorial candidates Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former Congressman Tom Perriello are tied in their party’s primary at 26 percent support, while Republican primary candidate Ed Gillespie has a clear lead at 38 percent in the GOP contest, according to a poll released by Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center for Public Policy on Tuesday.
Geoffrey Skelley, assoc. editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said in an email to The Cavalier Daily that he didn’t find the poll’s results particularly surprising since the finding largely echoes other public polls released over the past couple of months.
“An important aspect to note is that a large swath of Virginians have not made up their minds about these races,” Skelley said. “Every primary poll for both parties has shown at least 40 percent of the voters to be undecided, uncertain or wanting to support ‘someone else.’”
As a former Republican National Committee chairman, Gillespie has found success with voters favoring his political experience and “underperforms” with voters who supported President Donald Trump in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, receiving only 32 percent of their support. However, his opponents Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman Corey Stewart and State Sen. Frank Wagner (R-Virginia Beach) hold 11 percent of support from the same group of Trump primary voters.
“We’ve been seeing Republicans unifying behind Ed because they know he’ll be a governor for all Virginians,” said Abbi Sigler, deputy communications director for the Gillespie campaign. “He’s focused on getting our economy growing again, and he’s putting forward conservative policies and that’s what you’ll continue to see from him.”
Representatives for Northam and Perriello did not return request for comment.
Skelley said he found the Democratic side of the poll most interesting because the Northam-Perriello race is not an echo of the Clinton-Sanders race for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination.
“Many observers have tried to analogize the two contests, but the CNU poll showed that Northam leads 34 percent-25 percent among Clinton primary voters and Perriello leads 32 percent-21 percent among Sanders primary voters,” Skelley said. “So while there is a split there, it’s not overwhelming.”
The Wason Center intends to conduct another survey in May, closer to the June 13 primaries.
“In May we’ll do a stringent screen for likely-voters to try to find who the voters are actually going to be and who those voters are going to be supporting,” said Quentin Kidd, director of the Wason Center.
For this reason, Kidd predicts a possible dramatic shift in the Democratic results.
“The Democratic race is not quite a toss-up because the challenge for Perriello is that he has to get these voters who seem to be energized and excited about him right now to vote,” Kidd said. “His base of support are elements of the Obama coalition, including millennials and college students and the primary is June 13, when there aren’t a lot of college students on campuses.”
Kidd also said Northam is less dependent on that vote.
“When we do that May survey and screen for likely voters it may very well be the case that a lot of Perriello’s supporters don’t make it through the screen because somehow they indicate that they’re not likely to vote,” Kidd said. “We may very well see that Northam has pulled ahead by the time we get closer to the primary.”
However, Kidd said he does not anticipate any shake-ups in the Republican primaries.
“I feel pretty confident saying Gillespie is in a really good position, if Gillespie doesn’t win this thing then something big must happen between now and 10 weeks from now,” Kidd said.
Virginians will cast their votes in the respective primaries June 13, and the general election is set for Nov. 7.
Read More
From the archives: Nov. 25 – Dec. 1
By Emma Todd and Grace Franklin | 11 hours agoThe day before Thanksgiving in 1981, the University was gifted with its first snow of the year!
Student Council hears from Director of Diversity Education, talks parking fines
By Vyshnavi Tatta | YesterdayLaw Rep. Kasey Michaud introduced a bill encouraging students to donate food to local pantries by offering reductions in parking fees as an incentive.
10 years later — student journalists discuss retracted “Rolling Stone” article
By Merrill Hart | YesterdayThe graphic narrative ignited protests both on Grounds and at a national level.
