THE ISSUE of Taiwan's independence has returned to the American spotlight since their presidential elections two weekends ago. The victory of Chen Shui-bian, the Chinese Communist Party's least favorite choice, is one more reason for conflict to erupt in the Taiwan Straits. To avoid the potential for bloody conflict, the United States should use its unique political strength to foster talks between the two sides.
The U. S. needs to work out a policy concerning Taiwan that will work in the long term. The current "One China" policy is outdated. It originally was conceived in the 1970s so that the United States and the People's Republic of China could normalize relations. The Chinese demanded that the U. S. recognize that there is only one China, so the U. S. struck a compromise and recognized "One China, two systems." In reality, this meant that Taiwan would retain de facto independence, while appeasing the Chinese.
This flimsy political pretense has become a working policy in the two decades since it was created. There is a good reason for this -- the current situation works well for all the parties involved. The U. S. and China maintain relatively normal relations. Taiwan remains free of Chinese influence, and the Americans still promise to defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese attack. All three parties have economic relations, which works to the benefit of all.
The "One China, two systems" policy cannot work forever. China will not allow it -- the Chinese will never waver in their determination for Taiwan to return to the motherland. Until the day when that happens, whether it is tomorrow, 20 years from now, or a thousand years from now, the Chinese are committed to reunification. The issue of Taiwan carries the same righteous passion for the Chinese that Jerusalem does for the Jews and Palestinians, or Kashmir for the Indians and Pakistanis.
The only obstacle preventing China from retaking Taiwan is the United States. If the U. S. wavers at any time, China surely will attempt to retake Taiwan. This could happen in any number of ways. An American president could decide that the U. S. is no longer willing to risk war over Taiwan. China could gain a military advantage. Eternal American vigilance seems like an improbability, if not an impossibility.
The delicate balance of "One China, two systems" cannot be sustained forever. The situation is unstable at best. Conflict between China and Taiwan could occur for many reasons -- not the least being the election of Chen as Taiwan's President. Lee Teng-hui, the outgoing Taiwanese President, and the Chinese leadership had worn out their patience with each other by the end of his presidency. With Chen's stronger feelings concerning independence, he and the Chinese leadership may not be able to deal with each other on a peaceful basis for long. The most likely spark for conflict is the one that we cannot see or predict -- an incident like Tiananmen Square in 1989, or the bombing of the Chinese Embassy during the conflict in Kosovo.
Avoiding conflict over Taiwan is in everybody's interests, including the United States. Even if the U. S. emerges resoundingly victorious after a Chinese attack, conflict over Taiwan would have worldwide negative repercussions. World opinion easily could side with the Chinese on this matter, and the United States could be vilified for intervention. China cannot afford to lose its first and third largest trading partners -- Taiwan and the United States, respectively -- if it wishes to continue its program of economic development. In addition, thousands of Taiwanese surely would lose their lives in any conflict over the island.
Rather than close its eyes and hope that the "One China, two systems" policy happens to succeed in the future, the United States should take steps to negotiate a permanent solution for Taiwan and China. An incoming American president would have an opportunity to push cross-Strait relations in a bold new direction. The United States is uniquely poised to lead this effort. The U. S. has played the role of peacemaker many times in the past, and is accustomed to leading these sort of negotiations. China and Taiwan both have expressed a desire to begin talks, although they have not begun due to petty political squabbling on both sides.
The United States alone can coax both sides to put aside these differences and bring this issue to the negotiation table. This is the only way to avoid the undesired yet seemingly inevitable conflict over Taiwan and diffuse this ticking time bomb in a manner that satisfies all parties.
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