AFTER Sen. Jim Jeffords (I-VT) defected from the Republican party, politicians, pundits and analysts debated the motives and ramifications of this move. Usually, they could agree on one thing: Pres. George W. Bush was screwed.
"It's his fault!" the experts on CNN would cry. "He forced a moderate out of his party! He's imperiled his agenda!" But the Jeffords affair might be the best thing that's happened to Bush in his first six months as president.
Since the beginning of his presidency, Bush has stunned liberals and moderates by his conservative stances. He's come out solidly pro-life and against the environment. He's enraged the nation's allies by proposing a missile defense system and turning his back on the Kyoto Protocol, a 1997 global warming pact.
But why would Bush, after trying to woo moderates last autumn, opt to govern from the far right after such a close election?
There's the long list of donors and groups that Bush is beholden to. From the NRA to the Christian Coalition, from big business to the oil industry, the groups that got results for Bush in November are now expecting the president to get results for them.
If Bush is running again in 2004, he won't be able to alienate the conservative voting base. His father distanced himself from the far right during his presidency, choosing instead to raise taxes, raise air quality and emissions regulations, and cut our country's nuclear arsenal.
In return, his conservative support dwindled, and Texas billionaire H. Ross Perot entered the 1992 presidential election as an independent. Many claim that the elder Bush's shift to the left cost him the 1992 election.
But although the younger Bush has governed from the right, is this the way he wants to govern? Bush did reinstate the gag rule restricting U.S. funds from subsidizing abortions overseas. He suggested that he would appoint pro-life Supreme Court judges. But is this consistent with his history on abortion, along with other social issues?
Several Texas Supreme Court justices, appointed by Bush, recently ruled against parental notification for underage abortions. Many of his Cabinet and judicial nominees have been pro-choice and for affirmative action. Bush also has appointed several openly gay people into his administration, further angering religious conservatives.
Bush also hasn't turned his back completely on the environment. He supports federal funding for recycling programs, as well as incentives for farmers who use ethanol, a clean, non-polluting energy source.
Bush's rhetoric, during both his campaign and presidency, was temperate at worst. He constantly portrayed himself as "a uniter, and not a divider," and frequently promised to "change the tone in Washington."
Most people dismiss this as Bush trying to hoodwink the voters. But it also can be interpreted as Bush toying with a more moderate position, while still beholden to the advocacy groups and special interests that got him elected. Many of Bush's actions are not consistent with the conservative values that he has been accused of having.
Call me an idealistic liberal, but Bush's words and actions in the past suggest that he'd rather govern from the center than from the right.
Enter Jim Jeffords. With his defection, Bush has an excuse for two different groups of people in November 2004.
The conservatives won't blame him if he has to soften his approach, in order to appease the Democratic Senate. After all, he is "a uniter, not a divider." To the right-wingers, Jeffords, not Bush, will have been the cause of their problems. Expect their full support in the next election.
Also, by starting out his presidency on a conservative note, Bush has established an allegiance to big business and the oil companies. If Bush shifts his approach to be more liberal, it can always be blamed on the scapegoat senator from Vermont.
Now Bush can deflect the blame to the new Senate if anything goes wrong in the next few years. With Republican control of the presidency and both houses of Congress, any mishaps in the next four years would have given the Democrats more than enough ammunition to have a sweep in 2004.
The elder Bush had the luxury of a Democratic Congress to use as a scapegoat for his troubles, which won him the support of many moderate voters. However, he didn't have the early conservative voting record that his son does, which can keep Dubya in the good graces of the far right.
Don't look for Bush to go from number one on the Sierra Club's hit list to Ted Kennedy in a month. But thanks to the Jeffords defection, Bush can and will start moving his agenda closer to the center.
(Brian Cook is a Cavalier Daily associate editor. He can be reached at bcook@cavalierdaily.com.)
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