IN THE aftermath of the horrors of Sept. 11, Americans have tried to bring their lives as close to a state of normalcy as possible. As an example of this, the Virginia governor's race has regained its edge in anticipation of the Nov. 6 election date.
In the 10 days or so following the attacks, the campaigns of candidates Mark Earley (R) and Mark Warner (D) stopped most of their activities and all of their television advertisements. At a Fairfax County debate that took place this past week, however, the candidates re-emerged.
While the campaigns may try to engage in normal activities, the impact of the recent attacks will shape the issues they push and the tone they take. Largely, these changes in the electoral framework will work to Earley's advantage.
Neither campaign will try to profit shamelessly off of the suffering of thousands of innocent victims and brave rescue personnel. However, beyond the attacks themselves, the culture of America has changed. Political campaigns are some of the most responsive entities to cultural change. It's most important to consider what effects the Sept. 11 events will have on the fall election.
The momentum behind both campaigns has ceased entirely. Naturally, few people pay serious attention to elections prior to October. Through extensive television commercials and heavy grassroots work, Warner had managed to stake a lead over Earley. The messages predominant in Warner's ads, portraying him as a nonpartisan businessman, were not especially scintillating, but they worked more effectively than Earley's cash-strapped attempts at emphasizing experience.
For obvious reasons, voters likely have forgotten anything aired in the last few months. Due to the ever-short attention spans of voters, the week-long absence of television and radio ads probably has wiped away most of the voters' main reasons for voting for or against either candidate. In short, the money spent for ads to this point probably will have a minimal effect.
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Admittedly, as Earley hasn't done anything in the past week, Warner probably has kept some of his lead. If his supporters truly are committed to him, he should be able to keep them. However, due to the overly moderate tone of Warner's campaign, one might wonder if the center of his support would be vulnerable.
Here lies the next major impact of the Sept. 11 events: issue importance. While most of America associates the Pentagon with the District of Columbia, the building itself and a great deal of those who work there reside in Virginia. Additionally, the closing of Reagan National Airport has adversely affected a great deal of workers who live in Virginia.
As a result of these dramatic changes, voters arguably will be seeking a greater deal of stability in the next administration. They will care more about returning the Commonwealth to a state of normalcy and making sure that the rest of the government's operations are smooth and professional. If this shift takes place, Earley's near-deafening emphasis on his experience will begin to have traction with independent and nonpartisan voters.
Again, if Warner's support is deep and committed, it largely will stay with him through this uncertain time. Some of Warner's recent messages have contradicted standard Democratic party lines - placing guns on yard signs, making direct overtures to Second Amendment organizations. He also has contradicted his own prior statements that criticized programs of the Allen and Gilmore administrations. Although there's not a large Democratic base in Virginia, he risks causing a low turnout of hardcore liberal voters.
The other affected element of the campaign will be its tone. Having emerged from a horrific and tense situation, few voters will want to hear any kind of terse, negative campaigning. Specifically, they will not want to hear overt criticism of the current administration. Warner has used attacks against the Gilmore administration to further emphasize his nonpartisan message. Recently, Gilmore has made a number of public appearances, trying to rally support for re-opening National Airport, supporting Pentagon families and chaired an advisory panel on antiterrorism. To a lesser degree, Virginia voters may show a reluctance to completely turn against the person leading the Commonwealth in a turbulent time. This can only work to Earley's advantage.
These changes in the 2001 Virginia governor's race will not mean that Earley will sweep to victory. They do mean that Warner's prior work may have been for naught. In the coming weeks, this campaign will become a much tighter affair.
(Seth Wood's column appears Wednesdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at swood@cavalierdaily.com.)
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