RICHMOND
DESPERATE futility. Though Mark Earley's words spoke of underdogs and comebacks, his face and tired posture made the opposite statement. After following the Republican candidate for governor the latter half of Election Day, it became increasingly clear that the former attorney general from Chesapeake already had begun to contemplate likely defeat by Mark Warner (D). In the process of codifying their domination over the faltering Democratic party in the most recent General Assembly and executive elections, the Republicans made one more fatal error - they handed the mantle of leadership to current Republican Gov. James S. Gilmore III, and it cost Earley yesterday's election.
Since Reconstruction in the South, the Democrats have been the party that dominated Virginia. However, former Gov. George Allen (R) led a mobilization of the party that resulted in two consecutive Republican governors and GOP control of both houses of the assembly for the first time since the 1800s. Gilmore took over after Allen in a landslide in 1998 with the motto "Repeal the car tax." And why not? The state was in an economic boom in 1997, and a simple way to cut taxes made an appealing platform.
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When the economy turned sour, so did support for the full car tax cut from many Republican senators. Following a fight over how this cut factored into the budget, no compromise could be reached. Gilmore was left to draft the budget himself, and the tax cut. To keep the budget balanced, he cut funding to higher education and pay raises to state employees. Here Earley made a critical, though predictable, mistake. Throughout the campaign this fall he refused to distance himself from Gilmore and instead promised more tax cuts. This is predictable because Gilmore chairs the Republican National Committee - a necessary source of funding for the Earley campaign.
Yesterday, voters leaving the Short Pump Middle School precinct in Henrico County agreed the car tax debacle influenced their vote. Jed Muller of Henrico said, "I am a die-hard Republican ... but Earley's promises to keep cutting taxes just don't make sense in the recession. I don't know where he expects this cash to come from." Voters voiced faith in Warner's platform as promising economic development and fiscal management.
Many felt that the recent terrorist attacks and war with Afghanistan diminished media coverage. However, prior to the election returns, Earley's campaign spokesman David Botkins claimed, "The campaign received as much media coverage as it needed." Since much media attention has remained focused on the war on terrorism, candidates turned to massive media blitzes. Mary Helen Bradshaw, a new resident of Richmond, claimed, "I've never seen so much mudslinging in my life. I couldn't believe how much money was spent on all these campaigns." Advertisement attacks came from both campaigns, but Botkins said he doubts this affected voter turnout.
Turnout was key to swinging the polls in Warner's direction. Henrico Republican Party Chair Linwood Cobb said the Earley campaign was doing well in his district, with over 60 percent of registered voters coming to the polls. With the margin so close between the two candidates, Earley needed high turnouts in conservative areas and a positive response in Northern Virginia. Cobb claimed, "Gilmore took a heavy majority of several Northern Virginia districts. If [Earley] does half as well, he'll take the election."
Though Earley was not able to overcome such obstacles to topple Warner's early November lead, his coattails found more success. Jerry Kilgore, Republican candidate for attorney general, secured 60 percent of the electorate. Bob Bell and Bill Janis, Republican candidates for delegate, found similar success in their districts, which include Charlottesville. Though Warner has made inroads to bringing back the Democratic party in the Commonwealth, last year's redistricting significantly has changed the political landscape in the assembly.
Warner's victory yesterday marked a stem in the tide of Republican power in Virginia, but it remains to be seen whether he can turn his win into a win for the party two years from now. The economy is hurting, and the governor will be forced to make several painful decisions during his four-year term. Four years from now, it is quite conceivable that the roles will reverse, and Warner, just as Gilmore, will find it a difficult task to crown a partisan successor. Only time will tell.
(Preston Lloyd's column normally appears Tuesdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at plloyd@cavalierdaily.com.)
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