I got it all wrong last year. Let's hope I've learned from my mistakes, the biggest of which was foolishly hoping the members of the Academy might, just might, give the last statuette to the real best picture of the year, "Traffic." They didn't. And cinematic history has suffered because of it.
The 74th Annual Academy Awards, airing Sunday evening, will probably not appease my growing vendetta against the ever-staling Hollywood industry and the infamous awards show that only serves to glamorize it more. The 2001 movie year blew no one away, but, without Steven Soderbergh and Spielberg to lead the usual pack (they'll be back soon, don't worry), it's as exceptional as they come. This year's nominations raised few eyebrows.
The biggest surprise came with the announcement of Best Picture nominees: "Moulin Rouge?" Anyone could have predicted the others: the formulaic, man-will-overcome drama "A Beautiful Mind;" "In the Bedroom," a devastating realist film; "Gosford Park," smart, complex and period-driven; and the high-profile, big-budget "Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Rings." Edgy "Moulin" was surely not a shoo-in for a nomination. If only it would win - it's the most original movie of last year and the only one that stretches cinema to its stylistic boundaries.
But if "A Beautiful Mind" doesn't win the race, it will be a dream and I'll have to wake up. The movie was made to win Best Picture. It already got crowned king of the Golden Globes, which is a sure sign it's got it made at the Oscars.
Does this film deserve it? No. Not only is it presumptuous, insulting and ridiculous to make a movie based on a real life and fictionalize it by taking out all facets of that life that could possibly be deemed ignoble (Oh no, is that reality? We just couldn't have that), it's even more offensive to make viewers watch Russell Crowe pretend to be schizophrenic.
Nevertheless, Crowe's tics and his gravelly Southern drawl have likely placed him in prime position to win Best Actor. Please, Academy members, don't do it. Resist the urge. He won it last year. The last thing Mr. Crowe needs is another ego boost.
Who should it be? Good question. Will Smith's work in "Ali" is laudable, but he needs a few more critically valid movies ("Wild Wild West" just doesn't cut it) under his belt before he'll get taken seriously. Next, we've got Sean Penn for "I Am Sam." If anyone's portrayal of a mentally abnormal character gets the award, it'll be Crowe's. Tom Wilkinson has a slight chance thanks to his challenging role in "In the Bedroom," but "Training Day's" Denzel Washington is the only heavyweight to contend against Maximus Egous Russell Crowe. I'd bet money on underdog Denzel if I wasn't convinced I'd lose it - Russell will probably reign victor again.
Now for the Best Actress award. Nicole Kidman was the diamond of "Moulin Rouge," but her kooky performance can hardly compete with the gritty work of her counterparts - likewise for Renee Zellweger ("Bridget Jones' Diary"). Judi Dench ("Iris") always impresses, but she's so omnipresent people forget she's there. That leaves Sissy Spacek ("In the Bedroom") and Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball"). Both performances are worthy, but Spacek is a tough veteran to beat, and she's been nominated thrice since her last win in 1980. It's time she got another statuette.
As for Supporting Actress, "A Beautiful Mind's" Jennifer Connelly is the favorite. We've been seeing excellent work from Connelly recently. It seems she has transcended "Labyrinth" at last. Yet, either of the two nominees from "Gosford Park" could give her a run for her money - both Maggie Smith and Helen Mirren are fine actresses with formidable reputations.
Rounding out the acting categories is the award for Best Supporting Actor. Ethan Hawke gives an impressive performance in "Training Day," but it's Sir Ian McKellan's wizardry in "Fellowship of the Rings" that will likely take the Oscar. He's been in the biz for over 30 years, and this is his second nomination. Then again, "Ali's" Jon Voight is a skilled Hollywood stalwart too, so who knows what will happen.
The award for Best Directing should and will go to Robert Altman for his stunningly complicated "Gosford Park." Altman is a five-time nominee whose films are consistently superior. "Gosford Park" is possibly his best work, and he's not getting any younger. Give the man an Oscar.
And so the big winner Sunday night will be "A Beautiful Mind" unless things go providentially awry. In the spirit of "Gladiator," however, we should not underestimate the power of the action-packed blockbuster. Even without its other two-thirds, "Fellowship of the Rings" is nominated for 13 awards and could end up surprising everyone.
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