During a radio address last week, Governor Mark R. Warner reiterated a vow to continue to push for a Nov. 5 referendum on a one-cent sales tax increase in Northern Virginia that would generate transportation funds for the region.
A compromise version of the divisive bill originally called for the proceeds of the proposed tax increase to be earmarked for both transportation and education.
"Warner will be happy with either" one or both, said Politics Prof. Larry J. Sabato. "He just wants to walk away with something he can claim responsibility for."
But as the clock wound down toward the Assembly's March 9 adjournment, the Republican-controlled House, led by House Speaker S. Vance Wilkins Jr., R-Amherst, locked horns with Warner and the Senate, citing the poor economic climate in the House's refusal to allow a tax increase for education.
"It's just not a good idea to raise taxes during a recession," said Wilkins.
Democrats in the Senate, led by Sen. Richard L. Saslaw, D-Springfield, also refused to back down, insisting that no referendum would pass without provisions for education.
The tug-of-war that followed between the two houses prevented the bill from passing before the March session deadline.
Since then, Warner has said he will re-ignite the issue when the Assembly reconvenes April 17 for a one-day session to consider the governor's vetoes and amendments. By tagging the Northern Virginia referendum onto a similar bill already passed for the Hampton Roads region, he may be able to walk away with a victory, with or without money for education.
Wilkins said he now expects Warner to revisit the issue as an amendment, indicating such a move would be admissible.
It "seems like a no-brainer," said House Transportation Committee Chairman John A. Rollison III, R-Woodbridge, in a Washington Post interview. "It's a slam dunk - it should be very easy."
But some political analysts predict a tougher fight for Warner when he tries to pass the referendum and take home a victory.
"Warner has only 34 Democratic votes in the House, but he needs 51 to pass anything," Sabato said. "If Wilkins says 'no,' he's not going to get anywhere close to that number."
"I'd say the chances are 50-50, but this is far from a done deal," Sabato said.
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