I AM NOT a pessimist by nature, but now that President Bush is sending Secretary of State Colin Powell to the Middle East to "help quell" the escalated Israeli-Palestinian conflict, I must implore you all to not give a crap, and go about your everyday lives. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is over 2,000 years old, and incorporates an overwhelming spectrum of factors - religious, moral, territorial and historical. U.S.-sponsored cease-fires inevitably fail after a few days or weeks at most - an Israeli soldier will shoot a Palestinian, a Palestinian will blow himself up on a bus in Jerusalem and the cycle continues until the next U.S. sponsored cease-fire is negotiated. Powell will be going after yet another coveted cease-fire on this trip. Given the track record of Israeli-Palestinian cease-fires, and the United States' current war on terrorism which is causing a healthy dose of worldwide Muslim backlash, don't hold your breath for the current crisis to be over anytime soon - especially with U.S. help.
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Special U.S. envoy Anthony Zinni has been in the Middle East for a few weeks now, attempting to facilitate dialogue between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and has accomplished nothing of substance. In fact, the current crisis began as he was in the midst of trying to meet with both Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon for initial negotiations. Now, a few short weeks later, we can examine the glowing progress Mr. Zinni has made. Mr. Arafat is surrounded in his compound by Israeli soldiers and tanks. The Arab world is rallying against Mr. Sharon calling him a terrorist and murderer. Huge concrete chunks are being blown out of buildings by shells and mortars and plastic explosives each day all over the West Bank. Jerusalem, by far one of the holiest cities in Judaism, Christianity and Islam alike, has been turned into a war zone. By anyone's watch, the United States' ability to calm tensions in the region has been unimpressive.
To better understand why cease-fires continue to fail over this battered land, it helps to examine its recent history. Israel entered the West Bank and Gaza Strip first in 1967, during the Six Day War. Before 1967, Jordan occupied the West Bank and Egypt occupied the Gaza Strip. These previous occupations were deemed illegal by the majority of the international community. In fact, Jordan's occupation of the West Bank only was recognized by Pakistan and Great Britain - the rest of the world, including Arab states, rejected the recognition of this occupation. Complicated, huh? And that was just a portion of the past century. Think about the complexities of the multiple centuries before it, and you'll get an idea of what the United States is up against when it sends Colin Powell to stop a full-blown bloodbath in the Middle East. The odds of making any lasting progress in a cease-fire effort are almost zero.
Past U.S. efforts to negotiate a cease-fire in the region and get on the track to peace have failed time and time again - as recently as this March and past December, two recent efforts to broker peace collapsed. No viable, long-term solutions have been found to date.
So, what to do? The United States should redirect its attention to the Middle East as a whole, to put pressure on both parties to come to the table for a lasting solution. The Arab League Summit, for example, which ended in late March in Beirut, Lebanon, produced a revised version of a peace plan from the Saudi Arabian government.
While the plan has fallen under criticism as being unacceptable in the eyes of the Israeli government, it nonetheless presents a working solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from leaders surrounding the area. Additionally, the cultural bonds (religious, historical and otherwise) between the states in the area would seem to make this plan more attractive. The plan would be coming from a group culturally much closer to the conflict than the distant United States. The United States should work in close conjunction with the Arab League to bring both sides to the table around the Saudi Peace Proposal.
It is certain that many amendments will have to be made to the proposal, but both Arafat and Sharon have shown some warming to it. Bolstered by pressure from the United States, along with other western nations, this proposal has the potential to put a cork in the flow of blood from this region. After a temporary solution is found, the Arab League, United States and other states need to turn up the pressure on Israelis and Palestinians to reach a permanent solution. Incentives to come to the table could include loss of economic and military aid, as well as trade benefits.
The United States is right in wanting to quell the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but it must now change its role to one of resolution supporter rather than leader. If the United States continues to play the cop of the Middle East, the endless cycle of cease-fire and violence will make no progress toward lasting peace.
(Austen Givens' column appears Mondays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at agivens@cavalierdaily.com.)
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