How does anyone stay in the football prediction business? Over the past three seasons, according to ESPN.com's Tuesday Morning Quarterback, you are five times more likely to get the Super Bowl winner by drawing a team from a hat than listening to the likes of John Madden and other "experts."
That doesn't even include the rest of predictions made every summer that go awry. Last season, Sports Illustrated predicted the Super Bowl champion Patriots would finish 6-10 and the NFC Central champion Bears would finish 4-12, ranking them 29th in the NFL.
Nevertheless, every summer we all try to make predictions for the upcoming season, and watch as a Cinderella team inevitably tramples them.
I'm going to throw out some stats that I'll use to help predict the division and Super Bowl winner. In the past three years, the team that won it all did not play in Monday Night Football. The Super Bowl champion will be Arizona, Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Minnesota, New Orleans or San Diego. These teams own 12 of the first 13 picks in this year's NFL draft, but what is the NFL without parity?
Tuesday Morning Quarterback also points out how only three division winners in the past four years have repeated. Three!
But some of these recorded stats are simply amazing. Who honestly cares about the number of teams who have come from behind in the fourth quarter after losing the previous game, or after having a losing record last season?
Or the ridiculous splits, like running yards in divisional games played during the day while wearing throwback jerseys at home when it is warmer than 40 degrees? Yet every television broadcasts subjects us to these meaningless numbers.
Television really must be hurting to fill airtime. I guess it makes sense when you hire Eric Dickerson to tell him what to say. On Monday Night Football last season, Dickerson did not complete a sentence or ever once say, "Back to you, Al."
The camera just sat on him and his hideous turtleneck until ABC figured out that he had finished speaking in mid-sentence. On the plus side, the loss of Pat Summerall means we can expect John Madden's partner actually to remember the players' names.
Football this season will no doubt be full of surprises. So based on the history of predictions, here are mine, with two repeat division winners.
You can throw the Rams out right away because Sports Illustrated picked them. I like the 49ers to win the division just because of the curse.
San Francisco has put together a team with a quick defense to contain St. Louis, and a high-octane offense capable of matching the Rams. This is the year they get over the Rams. I say this because Jeff Garcia had a quarterback rating of 101.2 when a man went in motion last season, and the 49ers plan to put a man in motion every play to capitalize on this.
With an improved defense and Kevan Barlow to back up Garrison "Doobie" Hearst, the only NFL player without a real knee, look for the 'Niners to take home the NFC West with the Rams being a wildcard.
The addition of Jon Gruden means an NFC South title for the Bucs, who should be set now that they don't have to play a game in cold weather. The Bucs are 0
20 in games begun under 40 degrees, but will play division games in two domes and Carolina.
The Saints, led by former Wahoo Aaron Brooks, should grab the other wildcard. The Saints made history by trading Ricky Williams twice this summer; they traded their star to Miami and a rookie by the same name to Indianapolis.
The Packers should grab the NFC North. Brett Favre should be enough, but I wouldn't expect much from Terry Glenn; she's always a disappointment. The Eagles and Donovan McNabb should take the NFC Least.
In the AFC, the Raiders will make one last title run this year, claiming the West as the second repeat division winner.
Tony Dungy should lead a rebirth in Indianapolis as the Colts win the AFC South, but you don't really want to pick any of those teams to win a division.
The Colts have the league's most diverse backfield in country boy Peyton Manning, thugged-out Edgerrin James, and Penn alum Jim Finn, who holds a degree in finance.
Finn could start a conversation on the gold standard. James would assume he's talking about the gold in his mouth. Meanwhile, Manning would be shocked to be playing with people that have teeth after his career at Tennessee.
Any team with Kordell Stewart as their quarterback will struggle. Stewart has not won a big game yet, and threw three interceptions in last season's AFC Championship. Slash III, Antwaan Randle-El, will make the Steelers somewhat exciting to watch, for a reason other than seeing Bill Cowher's expression after someone takes his Dr Pepper.
I like the Browns to unseat the Steelers in the AFC North, but the Steelers should grab the wildcard. Miami will take the AFC East narrowly over New England, but the Pats go to the playoffs nonetheless.
Apparently, I leave myself with either New Orleans or Cleveland as the champion.
In the NFC, look for the 49ers to meet the Rams in the championship game, with the 49ers winning the rubber match at home. I like the Browns to make a playoff run and beat the Raiders to win the conference, before edging the 49ers.
I still can't believe I picked the Browns to win it all. Not that I expect to be right. Good thing Tim Couch has a 111.4 QB rating out of the I-formation. I hope the Browns know this and run the I-formation this season.
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