Republicans will rule the House, while the Senate race looks like a tossup, according to the University's political soothsayer, Politics Prof. Larry J. Sabato.
Sabato's famous crystal ball was launched on goodpolitics.org yesterday, receiving over 1,200 hits in its first three hours.
"Our site is intended to be free," said Joshua Scott, director of communications at the Center for Politics."It's a public service."
Sabato's ball reports that Republicans will gain the House because of their redistricting and fundraising advantages, and a lack of serious competition.
All 435 House seats are up for re-election every two years.
Since 217 seats are safely Republican, and the number needed for House control -- what the crystal ball calls "The Magic Number" -- is 218, Sabato expects a resounding Republican victory. He expects Democrats to claim only 202 seats. The House currently is composed of 223 Republicans and 212 Democrats.
The outcome of the Senate race is too close to call, Sabato says.
Out of 100 total Senate seats, 34 are up for re-election. Of those 34, 14 seats are incumbent Democrats and 20 are incumbent Republicans. Currently there are 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and one Independent in the Senate.
The gubernatorial open spots, however, are slated for the Democrats, according to Sabato. Currently there are 27 Republican and 21 Democratic governors.
"Republican governors are retiring," Sabato said. "Open seats produce changes, since people are inclined to give the other party a chance."
The crystal ball's newest glimmer is a map that illustrates each state's competitiveness. Minnesota and Iowa, the states that have the most closely contested races, appear larger than their relative sizes would indicate.
Highly uncompetitive states such as Virginia appear much smaller on Sabato's map.
Sabato expressed disappointment that so many races are virtually decided this early.
"Intense party competition tends to produce high voter turnout," Sabato said. "But now, only 48 out of 435 House seats are competitive. It's pathetic, really."
Minnesota and Iowa are distinct exceptions to the rule, because the first has the most active three-party system in the nation, while Iowa "is in essence a non-partisan system," Sabato said.
Current redistricting methods tend to discourage competition, Sabato said.
"Courts require states to create districts with approximately the same number of people, so if you want to redraw the lines to protect or favor your incumbents, it's easily done."
Sabato said his standards are a result of analyzing public opinion polls, party data, campaign treasuries and candidate backgrounds.
Only 44 out of 435 House seats, and only 11 out of 34 senate races meet Sabato's standard for a competitive race.
Finally, he emphasized that his suppositions are not set in stone.
"A wave may develop for one party before November, and that's why we'll be updating the site when changes occur," he said.
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