It is 9 a.m. June 19, 2002. Clear, sunny skies over western Kansas cause afternoon temperatures to soar to near 105 degrees. It has not rained for days, and the intense heat radiating from the land spawns dust devils as tall as the Washington Monument. These small, rapidly rotating columns of wind, along with an approaching cold front from the West, indicate that the air is unstable. The chance for severe thunderstorms with torrential rain is high.
A group of eager scientists and student interns from the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla. has monitored the evolving weather situation in this area for the past hour. With an arsenal of four mobile Doppler radars, six research aircraft and nine mobile weather stations, the field research group watches the minute-by-minute changes in weather conditions -- a bystander might have mistaken the researchers for the cast of the mid-1990s movie "Twister."
At about 4:30 p.m., the first puffy cumulus cloud appears. After an hour, the cloud grows taller and begins producing rain. By 6:30 p.m., this cloud pokes through the stratosphere at almost 60,000 feet. The mature storm begins to produce heavy rain and dangerous lightning. The field team stops work for the day and manages to get out of the path of the ferocious storm. Just in time. At 6:45p.m., a tornado touches down in an open field near the small town of Levant, Kan. It meanders its way across a farm and dissipates 15 minutes later. It causes no fatalities and only minor damage to the field.
This scene played out one day on IHOP, the International H2O project. This project marked one of the largest weather-related research efforts in North American history. From May 13 to June 25, scientists from universities and research groups worldwide studied the conditions that lead to thunderstorm formation.
They conducted their research in primarily three states -- Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma.
"The southern plains states are a prime location for this type of study. The terrain is generally flat, and many of the weather processes that are of interest occur frequently in this region of the country," said Conrad Ziegler, one of IHOP's lead investigators.
Scientists hope the outcome of this project will help forecasters better anticipate flooding rain events.
"We want to understand how boundaries such as cold fronts and warm fronts are formed and how they impact the initiation of thunderstorms that produce flooding rain," Ziegler said. "If we find patterns in the conditions that precede strong thunderstorms, forecasters can use this information to make inferences on the conditions that are necessary for a heavy rain event."
Every state in the United States has had a heavy rain event that caused flooding. During most years, there are more fatalities from flooding than from hurricanes and tornadoes combined. This disparity occurs because forecasting the exact timing, location and amount of rain remains nearly impossible. Even the nation's top weather forecasters have difficulty predicting heavy rain and floods.
"Right now the lead time for flash-flood forecasts is well under an hour," said David Parsons, co-lead scientist on IHOP. "If you can extend forecasts of heavy rainfall out a few hours, you're doing great."
How do meteorologists forecast today's heavy rain? Current technology only permits them to use computer models to make rain forecasts in probabilistic terms. For example, most weather forecasts on TV, radio or in the newspaper indicate that there will be "a 20 percent chance of rain in Charlottesville." The prediction means that any point in Charlottesville has a two in 10 chance of getting wet.
But, really, how does this vague information help the guy who wants to take his girlfriend to Wintergreen for an outdoor picnic tomorrow night? What weather forecasts do not indicate is specifically when and where the rain will occur. Because of improvements in computer processing speed over the last decade, weather computer models continue to improve steadily.
But there is still work to be done. Imagine, in 70 years, people will log on to a weather Web site, type in their home address, and get an accurate minute-by-minute rain forecast for their exact location up to a day in advance. The forecast will not only reveal a precise time when rain will occur, but also will indicate how much rain will occur at any given address. Perhaps when our grandchildren enter college, weather forecasts will be this specific: "A thunderstorm will form over Albemarle Square at 3:17 p.m. and will track to the NE for 15 miles producing .5-.75 inches of rain in its path."
Think about that. Think about the effect such scientific advancement would have on reducing the number of weather-related fatalities. Think about the incalculable positive impact this improvement would have on weather-sensitive industries such as agriculture, retail and aviation. Think about the effect it would have on the guy who could reschedule the trip to Wintergreen with his girlfriend.
"In the early 1900s, we had essentially no ability to forecast the weather," Environmental Science Prof. Bob Davis said. "Today we can forecast the weather for the next three days with surprising accuracy. The ability to forecast the weather is one of the great scientific achievements of the twentieth century."
Given the increase in weather forecasting accuracy over the last 100 years and research projects such as IHOP, one can only express optimism about the prospect for such a scientific breakthrough.
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