IT'S COMING -- five days out and counting. Make sure the stamp is firmly affixed to that absentee ballot and get it in the mail drop-box before the end of the day. Election Day is around the corner. This column a week ago explained that Virginia's congressional contests were nothing worth writing home about, but left it at that. Curious minds contested the unsubstantiated claim, and therefore deserve a more deliberate account of how the incumbents are all headed back to the District. But, predicting a lopsided shutout is never exciting, so we will take a stab at all the questions facing Virginians next Tuesday.
Now, what does it mean when a statewide politician is so popular that the Democratic Party doesn't field a candidate to contest you? Two things: Your name is John Warner and you're going back to the Senate for six more years. As anyone who has seen him in action will attest, Big John has still got the silver tongue and grip-and-grin charisma that endears this senior Senator to the hearts of the Commonwealth's Democrats and Republicans alike. All 11 Congressmen are going back. Here's why:
In the First District, which covers most of the rural Chesapeake Bay area, Democrat Jo Ann Davis has no opponent.
Down in Hampton Roads in the Second, Republican Ed Schrock was saved from a rematch of the 2000 match up with Jody Wagner when Governor Mark R. Warner appointed her Treasurer of Virginia. The Democrats had no second choice, so Schrock runs unopposed -- if you ignore the Green Party candidate, whom you should.
In the Third, Democrat Bobby Scott is unopposed. The only African-American in the Virginia Congressional delegation, Scott will benefit from redistricting two years ago and will easily be reelected.
In the Fourth, Republican Steve Forbes also was saved from a rematch of his 2001 Special Election against Louise Lucas. Lucas initially registered with the State Board of Elections but has since withdrawn from the race. Forbes is now unopposed.
The Fifth district finally shows some hints of a contest. The party-jumping Virgil (pronounced Verr-jeel by this Pittsylvania County good ol' boy) Goode is far enough ahead in the polls to be considered a sure thing in this extremely rural, conservative district. He was first elected as an Old-School yellow dawg Democrat (that is he was a Republican in Democrat's clothing), then switched to Independent, and this past year officially registered as a Republican. Former Charlottesville Councilwoman Meredith Richards will make Goode sweat a bit as she reels in the Charlottesville African-American vote, but the numbers won't be enough to put her over the top.
The Sixth is another no-show for the Democrats, so it seems Roanoke Republican Bob Goodlatte is headed back to D.C., despite a self-imposed term limit when he was first elected. Those things went out of style in the 90s anyway.
A colorful and fun race is underway in the Seventh between Republican Eric Cantor and Ben "Cooter" Jones. Cooter is notorious among tobacco-spitting, overall wearing, and syndicated TV-watchers everywhere from his days as a star on Dukes of Hazzard. Parts of this district are backwater enough to give Cooter a chance, but overall it's so conservative that Cantor will walk all over him in the end.
In the Eighth, Democrat Jim Moran worked hard to turn a sure re-election into a contest after serious borrowing improprieties became well-known this past summer. Fortunately for him, the corporate scandal feeding frenzy evaporated and with it any substantial challenge to this Northern Virginian's seat by Republican Scott Tate.
The Katzen campaign imploded in the Ninth District. Last year's Lt. Gubernatorial reject, Jay Katzen, should have made a better showing in this panhandle-Virginia district. Instead, Eric Boucher has this one wrapped up.
Republican Frank Wolf is faced by John Stevens in the Tenth, a heavily conservative, Suburban Northern Virginia district. Redistricting spoils will give Wolf an added margin to an already sure re-election.
Finally, in the Eleventh, Tom Davis gets a free ride across the Potomac, as he is virtually unopposed in his Urban Northern Virginia district. Nobody has heard of his opponent, Frank Creel, or the Constitution party on whose ticket he is running.
What about the bonds and referenda questions? Everybody's favorite mustachioed Virginia political oracle (let's call him Larry S., wait no, L. Sabato) says all the bonds pass, as well as the Hampton Roads Transportation Referendum. The NOVA referendum is a 50-50 toss-up. Unfortunately, I think this is optimistic. From tracing the media and talking to my folks at home in Norfolk, I think the Hampton Roads version may just have a prayer, though the margin of victory will be paper-thin. Conservative Virginia Beach alone could kill this one, though. The NOVA question is going to go down, and go down hard. Despite massive cash and lots of big names tied to the initiative, the anti-tax organization is awesome. Low turnout from "yes" voters will probably result in a big loss for this referendum.
Nationally, the Democrats are going to keep the Senate, in some part thanks to Bob Torricelli dropping out in Jersey. The Minnesota tragedy will bring in sympathy for the Democratic candidate there, as well. However, the Democrats need a miracle to take the House. If there is a change, Virginia won't have anything to do with it. Final verdict: this politics major expects a split Congress next year.
The Governor could care less about the Congressional election, just like most of the public. But if he is to have any political capital left for the rest of his term, at least some of those referenda have to pass. If not, the legislature will have a very clear mandate that taxes are politically unpalatable, not to mention the low priority of education and park construction. Tuesday night will bring an answer. Cross your fingers. I'll be watching.
(Preston Lloyd's column appears Thursdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at plloyd@cavalierdaily.com.)
Read More
EDITORIAL: Celebrate the Contemplative Commons and other non-academic student spaces
By Editorial Board | 2 hours agoThe Contemplative Commons stands as a testament to the value of spaces that transcend commercial imperatives, fostering interdisciplinary engagement and experiential learning.
KURTZWEIL: What we lose in the name of efficiency
By Paul Kurtzweil | YesterdayPenicillin was discovered in a moldy petri dish — this government would have it thrown out because it was wasting space on the counter.
RASHID: U.Va. must empower faculty and students through transparency
By Muhammad Ali Rashid | YesterdayBy attempting to contain, or even eliminate uncomfortable narratives, the administration incrementally consolidates power and frays communal trust.
