Possible outcomes of the 2004 presidential election and election reform legislation both received substantial discussion in a presentation from CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider yesterday in Jefferson Hall.
Schneider's presentation was a part of the Jefferson Society's speaker series.
Citing several potential outcomes in the 2004 race, Schneider named Al Gore, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY and a reelected George Bush as likely victors. Schneider noted, however, that Bush's fluctuating approval ratings could decide his fate.
"George Bush is, in many ways, above politics," said Schneider, referring to his high approval ratings.
Schneider explained reasons for past presidential victories and defeats. In each of the comparisons, American voters consistently sought from a new president what had been lacking in their incumbent.
According to Schneider, qualities such as Kennedy's sense of progress in 1960, Nixon's projection of order in 1968 and Clinton's empathetic image in 1992 were major factors that contributed to their ultimate victories.
In the 2000 election, he said a McCain candidacy would have seen a decisive victory. His image as an honest man, conveyed by his "Straight Talk Express" campaign bus, harshly contrasted the corruption of Bill Clinton. Schneider attributed McCain's defeat to his criticism of conservatism in the Republican Party.
He also addressed controversy surrounding Florida voting practices, under fire in the 2000 election and most recently in last month's Democratic primary. Florida officials recently announced new technology intended to avoid similar situations in the future.
"Will it eliminate fraud? Don't kid yourself," Schneider said about such reforms.
He said that simply making the voting process easier would not improve the electoral system as a whole, because a loss of partisanship among voters is a much greater concern than technical problems.
Congress passed the Election Reform bill last week in an effort to correct the problems that arose in the 2000 presidential election.
Despite the opposing goals of Democrats and Republicans, the act was able to incorporate issues from both parties. Democrats focused on making access to voting easier, while Republicans concerned themselves more with voter fraud.
"The bill contains provisions that meet the objectives of both parties," Politics Prof. Larry Sabato said.
Sabato testified before Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., during the composition of the act. Many of the provisions Sabato suggested appeared in the final legislation, Sabato said.
"This is not a revolution, this is simply evolution in our electoral system," he added.
In addition to offering political predictions, Schneider compared the 1990s to the 1920s, calling the 1990s a "fantasy decade" in which people were reluctant to confront international affairs.
The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, much like the stock market crash of 1929, brought the United States out of that illusionary state, Schneider said. Since then, the country has focused more on foreign policy.
Schneider said he felt the attacks were motivated by America's international presence.
"American culture is taking over the world, and that is threatening to a lot of people," he said.
In current foreign policy decisions, he noted the reluctance of some Americans to enter a war with Iraq, which he attributed to two primary concerns. First, there is a common fear that such a war will detract from the war on terror; secondly, American people do not want to go to war with Iraq alone.
But, he added the American people certainly "don't want another September 11."
Schneider explained that in contrast to the Desert Storm campaign of the early 1990s, the United Nations now opposes violence against Iraq. Congress, in contrast to a decade ago, quickly passed a measure allowing President Bush to take whatever military action he sees fit.
He added that on Labor Day of this year, public approval for going to war with Iraq was at 58 percent, and since then it has dropped to 53 percent.
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