Charlottesville has been missing something over the last four years, something students at the University have just recently begun to notice.It is evident in the plastic silverware now used in the dining halls, and the thousands of pamphlets scattered about Grounds exhorting students to conserve water. Yes, for the past several years, Charlottesville has been missing rain, and it probably will take some time before things return to normal.
Over the last four years, Charlottesville has missed one year's worth of rainfall.During the El Ni
o years of 1997 and 1998, many cities on the East Coast, including Charlottesville, received average to above average levels of precipitation. Unfortunately, in the spring of 1998 Mother Nature virtually shut off the tap. Since that time, Charlottesville has had a total rainfall deficit of 40 inches -- an amount equal to Charlottesville's average yearly rainfall total.
"A short-term deficit -- merely six summer weeks with little rain -- can devastate crops," Environmental Sciences Prof. Patrick Michaels said in a recent Washington Post article. "Droughts lasting a year, which occur in the Mid-Atlantic when we get about 60 percent of our normal 40 inches of rain, begin to draw down shallow-water wells and dry up livestock ponds."
What is to blame for this lack of rainfall?The most likely culprits are a stubborn Bermuda High, a jet stream that has remained farther north than normal, and a shortage of tropical storms making landfall.
The Bermuda High is a semi-permanent high pressure system. High pressure is associated with sinking air, which prevents clouds from forming. Long periods of high pressure can create severe drought conditions because rain clouds cannot form.
Most years, the Bermuda High is located over Bermuda. But during the last several years, it periodically has crept farther southwest, closer to Virginia. The clockwise movement of wind around this high pressure system has caused storms that would normally hit Charlottesville to shift toward the northern United States and southern Canada. All one can do is hope that a monstrous weather system barrels through and breaks the system apart, but this has yet to happen.
"It's very tough to bust through this thing. The Bermuda High is just so large and locked over the East Coast. This is simply something we don't need right now," said New Jersey State Climatologist David Robinson in a South Jersey Courier Post article.
Another factor causing the drought is the jet stream. This 100 mph river of air in the upper atmosphere has a tremendous impact on the weather. Since 1998, it periodically has moved farther to the north than normal and remained there for long periods of time. The jet stream also aided the Bermuda High in steering major storm systems well to the north of Virginia.
A third player in the worsening drought situation is the decrease in the number of hurricanes and tropical storms hitting land over the last five years. Often times, rain-filled tropical systems in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico make their way into the United States. These tropical systems bring needed relief to areas during the late summer and early fall, which is, according to climatological records, the driest time of the year.Scientists currently are trying to determine what has caused this reduction in tropical activity, andmany blame El Ni
o.
El Ni
o, a phenomenon in which the ocean currents in the Eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal, has a major effect on the global climate. Scientists at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center believe it is currently making a comeback.If it does return, therelikely will be fewer than normal tropical systems.But, all hope is not lost with El Ni
o.
"We've had our eyes on this El Ni
o for months, and understand it well enough to predict its likely climate impacts months in advance," said Jim Laver, director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
It will take several months of above average precipitation to ameliorate the drought. Unless there is a rainfall of Biblical proportions, Charlottesville will not likely get back that one year of lost rainfall. But a few months of above normal rainfall would definitely ease the situation.
"While some improvement in the drought is possible, namely across the Southwest and southern central Plains states, it may not be enough to alleviate dry conditions entirely, particularly in the Northwest, Northeast, mid-Atlantic and the Ohio Valley," said Jack Kelly, director of NOAA's National Weather Service.
El Ni
o offers a glimmer of hope.But if the current dry weather pattern continues, the days of no trays and plastic eating utensils in the dining halls could continue.
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