GET OUT the vote: every political candidate, staffer and analyst knows the importance of this requirement as a campaign strategy. Elections are won by whoever gets the most people to the polls. In Virginia this year, due to a lack of closely contested Congressional races, several other regional and state-wide questions on the ballot may be adversely affected. This is only going to be compounded by the threat of the sniper, should he or she continue to intimidate the largest single concentration of voters in the Commonwealth: Northern Virginia. Voters have every right to feel nervous about time spent out in public, yet it is critical that the threat of violence not deter Virginians from casting their ballot.
Virginia is a boring state politically this year. The U.S. Senate race is, for all intents and purposes, uncontested. The Democrats chose not to field a competitor against the popular Republican incumbent John Warner. The 11 congressional contests are all similarly uninteresting, as the incumbents hold considerable margins over their challengers. As a result, campaign spending is low, media coverage is poor and overall turnout looks to be unusually abysmal on Nov. 5 for the midterm election.
Few voters understand the state-wide ballot questions: a constitutional question and two bond issues, one for parks and one for construction on college campuses. However, two regional referendums in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads look to be the most controversial votes this November. There, referenda propose sales tax increases, a half cent in Northern Virginia and a full cent in Hampton Roads, which would then be used for projects to improve regional transportation. Because they involve the "t" word, a current taboo in Virginia politics, these referenda have found vehement opposition from interest groups and individuals throughout the state. This very small but very vocal constituency is sure to show up at the polls with a strong interest in casting their ballot against not only the regional questions, but the state-wide ballot issues as well.
This means that the General Obligation Bond for education facilities could be seriously threatened in the face of low turnout. In Northern Virginia, this makes for an ominous scenario because the region will be voting on the controversial tax referendum. Turnout must be high in order to offset the vocal minority anti-tax groups.
However, the number of people heading to the polls likely will be affected by the sniper shootings which have occurred over the past month in the Washington, D.C., metro area and I-95 corridor. Considering the obvious safety concerns that now have seized this region, few will willingly wait in lines at voter precincts to cast their ballots. In the minds of many, this election doesn't matter anyway because none of the congressional elections are contested.
The deterrent of the sniper shootings will no doubt ensure low voter turnout in the Northern Virginia area. This will likely cause a victory for anti-tax constituents and a bitter defeat for Gov. Mark. R. Warner on at least the traffic referendum, and likely on the bond referenda for parks and education as well.
Voters must not concede the unimportance of this election due to an unexciting lineup of congressional candidates. These traffic referenda will determine how Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads will grow over the next 50 years. The parks referendum will protect the Commonwealth's precious open space: an increasingly rare commodity considering the rate of development across the state. Finally, the education bond will jump-start building construction and renovation projects at public universities throughout Virginia. By authorizing over $900 million for these capital improvements -- $68 for the University -- the bonds will update dilapidated 40- to 50-year-old classrooms, libraries and labs, enhance Virginia's competitive edge to attract businesses to our state with a well-trained workforce, and generate $1.5 billion in economic activity and 14,000 new jobs by 2008.
Turnout in Northern Virginia is critical to the success of these initiatives. Voters must realize the importance of their vote this November. It will no doubt be very exciting to watch the red and blue tally on the map as other states fight for control of both houses of Congress. Virginia's results will mandate a road map of the future for legislators. Will Virginia embark on a road for more directed and controlled development through protection of open space and managed growth of transportation, educational facilities and other public goods? Or instead, will Virginia remain chained to the status quo of our sprawling development, congested transit infrastructure and decomposing Universities and suffocate under shrinking revenues? This November is a watershed decision for Virginia politics as well as a referendum on Warner's political efficacy. Cast your vote. Sniper or not, every Virginian must be a part of this decision.
(Preston Lloyd's column appears
Thursdays in The Cavalier Daily.
He can be reached at
plloyd@cavalierdaily.com.)
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