Members of the University community weighed in on next week's elections last night with Politics Prof. Larry J. Sabato and members of the College Republicans and University Democrats. The discussions took place in a lecture hall in the Physics Building.
First, Sabato, the University's resident political prognosticator, offered his "Crystal Ball" predictions for Tuesday's elections.
With both houses of Congress narrowly divided between Democrats and Republicans, the elections will determine who controls the Senate and the House for the next two years.
The Republicans likely will retain or even expand their majority in the House, Sabato said.
"It's looking like they may gain seats," he said.
The dicennial redistricting process is one factor influencing this year's House races. After the 2000 Census, all of the nation's 435 House seats were redrawn using the new data.
"The Republicans got a bump of exactly three seats" from redistricting, Sabato said.
Unlike in previous years, however, redistricting has not produced a large field of competitive races in this election cycle.
There are only 30 competitive House races and eight true tossups in the nation, Sabato said.
While the Republicans appear likely to retain the House, the Senate is much harder to predict, Sabato said.
"The Democrats have the slightest paper thin edge to control the Senate," Sabato said.
Currently, there are 50 Democrats, 49 Republicans and one Independent in the Senate.
Louisiana's quirky election law may prevent anyone from knowing who controls the Senate on Election Day, Sabato said.
In Louisiana, if no candidate receives at least 50 percent of the vote, then the two leading candidates are thrown into a runoff.
If the incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu does not reach the 50 percent threshold, then Senate control could potentially depend on the December runoff.
"It could be 2000 all over again," Sabato said.
The Democrats are likely to gain three to seven gubernatorial seats and the nation is likely to elect a historic number of woman governors, he said.
After Sabato spoke, the University Democrats and College Republicans participated in a debate in which they analyzed high profile elections and offered reasons why voters should support their respective parties.
University Democrats President Ian Amelkin said he thought the recession and the decline of the stock market would lead voters to embrace Democratic positions on social security and the economy.
College Republicans Chairman Ben Beliles disagreed, however, saying, "We will get past this recession that we inherited from Bill Clinton."
Republicans are likely to benefit from the Iraq issue, given that the war resolution passed both houses of Congress by wide margins, Beliles said.
Amelkin disagreed.
"I believe that the American people, whether they support the war or not, want an open dialogue," he said.
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