As the country moves closer to fulfilling the prophecy of Outkast's song, "Bombs over Baghdad," America's greatest sporting event starts this evening when Texas Southern takes on UNC-Asheville in the NCAA Tournament play-in game. Just as there is no greater Bush tradition than going to war with Iraq, there is no better American tradition than filling out an NCAA bracket in the futile attempt of trying to actually predict the unpredictable.
With that said, here are some of my own thoughts on the greatest three weeks in sports (with a little military jargon added for contextual effect).
Who will win the National Championship?
This, of course, is the most important question to be answered. With its high-powered offensive arsenal consisting of long bombs and quick strikes -- not to mention the experience of its floor generals -- I think Arizona will come out of this war victorious. This team has everything you could want. It has great senior leadership with point guard Jason Gardner and forwards Luke Walton and Rick Anderson -- all of who are hungry to get back to the championship game after their loss to Duke in 2001.
Further, everyone knows how important guard play is to being successful in the tournament. The guards handle the ball and control the flow of the game, and there is nobody better at that than Gardner. Leading Arizona in points and assists, Gardner will make sure his team doesn't get rattled in tough situations.
As any good military buff will tell you, quantity means just as much as quality -- and the Wildcats have both. Arizona also is loaded with talented reserves and depth in case one of their big guns is having an "off" night or in foul trouble.Salim Stoudamire is a streaky shooter who can keep teams honest on the outside. Center Channing Frye has had an outstanding year in the paint, and Hassan Adams provides 'Zona with a super-talented spark off the bench.
On top of all that, do-it-all Walton is healthier now than he has been at any point in the season, thanks to a week-long rest. Coach Lute Olsen already has led one team to a title and is quick to point out that this year's team went undefeated in conference play on the road and also posted victories at Kansas and home against Texas.
Lastly, the Wildcats have the all-important "chip on their shoulder" entering the tournament. With all the attention on Kentucky and its 23-game winning streak, the pressure (and expectation) to win it all is not squarely on Arizona's shoulders. These Wildcats are on a mission to show (and remind) people why it was them -- not the Wildcats from the Bluegrass state -- who were considered the nation's best team for most of the season.
Which "sleeper" team is most likely to reach the Sweet 16?
America loves underdogs, which is why one of the greatest parts of the tournament is waiting for "Cinderella" to find her glass slipper. So who will be this year's Kent State -- a previously unknown team who reaches the second weekend? I like Weber State. These Wildcats were only one of three teams to go undefeated in their conference and have won 17 games in a row -- second only to Kentucky.
Moreover, they are led by the Big Sky's MVP, point guard Jermaine Boyette. Boyette averaged over 20 points per game this year and wants the ball in his hands during crunch time. Weber State also boasts the Big Sky Newcomer of the Year in Slobodan Ocokoljic, a junior transfer from Ohio State who led the conference in rebounding with an 8.9 average. Ocokoljic will give the Weber State Wildcats some inside strength that many "mid-major" teams lack.
Finally, Weber State has history on its side. In their last trip to the Big Dance in 1999, the Wildcats bounced North Carolina out of the tournament. Boyette will become a household name as No. 12 seed Weber State upsets Wisconsin and Dayton to make it to the second weekend.
Who will be the surprise guest to the Final Four?
There are Cinderellas and then there are the uninvited guests. This year's team hiding under the radar is Louisville. Once ranked as high as No. 2 in the nation, Louisville has faded recently largely in part to the controversy surrounding the eligibility of Marvin Stone, who is now back in action and controlling the paint. The Cardinals have the coach in Rick Pitino, the senior leadership and guard play in Reece Gaines, as well as the difficult style of play to prepare for with its trapping defense and three-point loving offense. If the Cardinals are hot from outside and regain their form on defense, they could serve as this year's bracket busters.
Rounding out the Final Four:
I also think Florida and Kentucky will join Louisville and Arizona in New Orleans. And if you ask me about all these picks three weeks from now, I'll deny I ever made them -- that is, unless I am right.
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