NOW THAT we know the Republicans have stolen yet another election and put the Grope-inator in charge of the world's 5th largest economy, America will turn it's attention away from the Golden State and center it on the 2004 presidential election. This begs the question: Can Democrats win in 2004? I offer you a resounding yes. In order to win in 2004, the sitting President must be vulnerable, Democrats must have a viable candidate and the electoral environment must be conducive to changing the administration. All of these factors are already present in America today, and we will see a Democrat take command of America's highest office in January 2005 because of it.
Political scientists have long defined periods of American history as being dominated by one political party over another. But there is an overwhelming agreement that, since 1968, America has been split politically. Although the partisan split is not as apparent as it was during the Vietnam era, it is still present, as shown by how close Al Gore won the presidency in 2000. This gap took a temporary hiatus, though, after September 11 in favor of Republicans. However, the gap is back and is as prevalent as ever. In recent weeks, Bush's approval ratings have finally dropped back to pre-September 11 levels. What's more interesting is that a bi-partisan opinion poll, released late last month, says that 41 percent of the population thinks that someone new should "definitely" be elected in 2004 while only 39 percent say Bush should "definitely" be re-elected. So is the sitting President vulnerable? He is without a doubt.
In order for the Democrats to exploit this weakness, though, we need a viable nominee. There is no question that any of the three front-runners will be not only viable, but a formidable challenge to the Bush regime. Gen. Wesley Clark, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, and Sen. John Kerry are all extraordinary candidates.
Democrats pushing for Wesley Clark say that he presents the biggest threat to Bush, and they may have a point. National security is going to be a central theme in 2004, and this is where Gen. Clark shines. Michael Moore put it best when he said, "The General versus the Texas Air National Guard deserter! I want to see that debate." On the social front Clark is in line with core values of the Democratic Party. Despite his background and achievements, Clark does have a weakness. It turns out that he is a long time supporter of Republican candidates, even up to 2001 when he praised Bush's tax cuts at a GOP fundraiser, which may not play out well with the core Democrats that would nominate him in the primary. In essence, if Clark makes it out of the primary he will without question be a very challenging candidate for Bush to beat.
Next on the slate is Howard Dean, former Governor of Vermont. Dean has described himself as being from the "Democratic wing of the Democratic Party." The quote has some truth to it. Dean embodies issues central to the Democratic Party, but is more than just some fringe candidate. The defining characteristic that sets him apart is his grassroots following that no other candidate can closely match. Through Meetup.com, Dean has registered over 120,000 supporters to rally for his cause. This high level of organization at the local level is invigorating people politically, a new phenomenon in a world of political apathy. Despite the momentum behind him, critics charge at Dean with being too liberal and thus unelectable, like Michael Dukakis or George McGovern. However, Dean does have some moderate qualities as well. The NRA gives him high ratings, and he has been a long-time proponent of balanced budgets. Provided that his message resonates with voters, Dean's following will without a doubt present Bush with an uphill battle.
Finally, we have Sen. John Kerry from Massachusetts. Kerry, like Clark and Dean, stands for most issues central to the Democratic Party. Kerry is distinguishable, though, as he is a decorated Vietnam veteran. More than this, though, the Massachusetts senator has a presidential eloquence to the way he carries himself that Dean, Clark and most certainly Bush have not developed. He has been compared to John F. Kennedy numerous times in this respect. If he clenches the Democratic nomination he too will without a doubt be a threat to Bush.
Any of the frontrunners will present a daunting challenge to Bush in 2004. But the Republican spin is that all of these candidates are too liberal and therefore unelectable. The fact of the matter, though, is that strategists on both sides acknowledge that mobilizing the bases of both parties is going to be the key to winning in 2004. Appealing to the median "soccer mom" of the 1990s, as it was dubbed, is no longer the strategy.
Even with great candidates and a weak sitting president, we Democrats still need an electorate that wants to change the administration. It isn't hard to see that we do have this. People need only ask themselves a few simple questions before they realize that we need change. Is a $300 tax return worth skyrocketing college tuition costs? Are schools improving? Do we have more jobs? Have we found weapons of mass destruction? Are our troops coming home safely? Are my drinking water and air cleaner? In short, are we better off now than we were four years ago?
(Ryan Hughes is vice-president of the University Democrats. He is a fourth-year College student.)
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