LAST WEEK, Congress sent to the Oval Office legislation to ban partial birth abortions. Bush not only publicly announced that he will sign it, but has been hustling the Senate to get it on his desk as soon as possible. This will be the first significant incursion on Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court decision that legalized abortion. The passage of this legislation will factor exponentially into the 2004 Presidential race. If the public is properly informed, the Democratic Party can use this issue to their advantage rather than their detriment. The key will be in stressing that the ban on partial birth abortions is most significant as a step toward making all abortions illegal.
In the past thirty years, abortion has maintained a high spot on voters' issues lists. The subject gets a lot of public exposure, tangibly effects many voters, and appears more comprehensible than other platforms like health care or campaign finance. The vast majority of female voters, and a growing number of male, have something to say about abortion. In the 2000 presidential election, both candidates were compelled to publicly declare their stances on abortion. And doubtless, their opposing opinions contributed to how many Americans chose to cast their ballots. Yet, this was when Roe v. Wade was less overtly threatened.
Now enter 2003 and a ban on partial birth abortion. If pro-choice women were assured that they held the rights to their own health decisions, they were wrong. And if pro-life advocates thought the battle was in vain, they must be pleasantly surprised. The new legislation brings the abortion issue out of its already prominent position into an even brighter spotlight. The challenge to abortion suddenly makes it a top priority for voters. The result will be more voters at the polls and a lot of crossing of what would have been a stable party line.
The majority of the candidates for the Democratic candidacy are staunchly pro-choice, opposing virtually any restrictions on abortion rights, including the partial birth ban. The anomaly, Dick Gephardt who has voted in the past for restrictions, still publicly states that he is against the current congressional legislation. Thus, the 2004 presidential race will pit a decidedly pro-choice candidate against one who is decidedly pro-life. And the issue is one in which most voters stand in the middle.
A January 2003 ABC News poll found that 23 percent of the American public favored categorical legality of abortion. A significantly smaller proportion, 17 percent, believed abortion should be illegal in all cases. And the plurality, 59 percent, wanted abortion legal under "certain circumstances." A mere two percent had no opinion on the topic. For some determining those circumstances must consider cases of rape or incest and the state of the mother's health. Yet for many "circumstances" refers to which trimester the mother is in. A July 2003 ABC News poll found that 62 percent of respondents believed partial birth abortions should be illegal. Thus, a significant proportion of the electorate will probably approve when Bush passes the pending legislation.
But voters would be ignorant to leave it at that and Democrats would be foolish to accept this as defeat. The partial-birth ban will not satisfy anyone, but it will raise the hopes and the solidify political convictions of pro-life activists. With the passage of this legislation, the entire premise of Roe v. Wade is under attack. The extremist votes are still the minority, and will probably cancel each other out; whoever controls the middle will win the election. Stressing to the public, especially moderate Republicans and non-voters, the consequences of any incursion on abortion rights will grab the attention of the swing vote. Abortion is an especially malleable issue in this regard, because it has the most resonance for women, who now turn out to vote in greater numbers than men.
The American electorate is generally rather ignorant on candidate platforms. But abortion still stands out as a highly visible issue that for less-informed voters will define a candidate. Though the ban on partial-birth abortion is a temporary setback, it may prove fortunate in the long run. The issue may be just enough to get a Democrat in the White House, which is a primary concern. From there we can work on restoring to women their absolute right to choose.
(Kimberly Liu's column appears Monday in The Cavalier Daily. She can be reached at kliu@cavalierdaily.com
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