THE ONLY thing quieter than downtown Richmond last night was Virginia's Democratic Party headquarters. In an election with little at stake, the Democrats gained two seats in the House of Delegates and lost one seat in the Senate, with the outcome of two races still undetermined at press time.
Last night's election will mean little for the complexion of the General Assembly and the chances for Gov. Mark R. Warner to advance his agenda in the face of Republican opposition. The Republicans will retain a solid majority in both houses, but will not have sufficient numbers to override Warner's vetoes. And despite claims of victory from both parties, this continuing division of power is less a success for either side than a prescription for two more years of legislative deadlock in Richmond.
The lackluster results of last nights's elections are largely the result of a Republican-led redistricting process undertaken in 2000. With legislative districts scientifically redrawn to protect incumbents, few elections were very competitive. In the House, 88 of 89 incumbents won reelection, 61 of whom ran unopposed. Overall, 80 of Virginia's 140 legislators ran unopposed, including Charlottesville's Democratic delegate, Mitch Van Yahres.
With relatively few contested races, this election season was a quiet one. Most campaigns were built on the basis of local concerns, with few statewide issues and few implications for the next legislative session.
But despite the practical insignificance of last night's balloting, the results represent an important symbolic victory for the Democrats. Despite the computer engineered Republican redistricting, the Democrats scored a net gain in the House for the first time since 1975, while suffering minimal losses in the Senate.
House Minority Leader Franklin P. Hall said that the Democrats' efforts last night represent a foundation of credibility that can be built on in later elections. Even in their losing races, the Democrats have begun to establish a reputation for competence and fiscal responsibility that will play well with voters in the future.
Warner was similarly enthusiastic about last night's results, calling the Democratic gain a sign that "Virginians want mainstream, moderate leaders who can work together." Warner said further that the Republicans' campaign of "sound byte sloganeering had failed."
But if Warner is to capitalize on his perceived success, he must now begin to forge compromises on key issues such as tax reform and education. With Republicans still controlling both houses of the General Assembly, Warner will need to follow last night's symbolic victory with negotiating victories if he is to attain his legislative goals next year.
Among the biggest issues of the next legislative session will be Warner's mysterious tax reform plan. Although the details have yet to be announced, the plan is believed to include a variety of new tax increases. According to a recent Richmond Times-Dispatch poll, 48 percent of voters believe that an overhaul of Virginia's tax system will mean higher taxes for individuals and businesses. Last night, Warner said only that his plan will be "more fair, more equitable and will reflect the modern economy."
Tax reform and even tax increases may be necessary if Virginia is to fund new projects in higher education and transportation. But these goals will be difficult to achieve in a legislature dominated by Republicans who oppose any new tax increases.
After last night's elections, state Democratic spokeswoman Laura Bland described the results as "a tremendous victory." But whatever the claims of their leadership, the Democrats have not won, but merely survived. If they are to advance their agenda in the coming legislative session, they must find a way to make symbolic victories useful in a legislature still controlled by their rivals.
(Alec Solotorovsky is a Cavalier Daily associate editor. He can be reached at asolotorovsky@cavalierdaily.com.)
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