THOUGH generally frowned upon in journalism, this column begins with a personal anecdote. This past Tuesday was election day in Virginia. Thanks to an antiquated electoral calendar, Virginia is fortunate to enjoy alternating state/local and federal elections on a four-year repeating cycle. This year, this author was fortunate to travel with Center for Politics Director and Politics Prof. Larry Sabato and two other students to Richmond for Sabato's annual post-election analysis at NBC Channel 12.
However, this year he prefaced the trip by apologizing to the entourage, "This is by far the most boring election I've ever covered in over 25 years." A lack of choice and dismal registered voter participation combined to create a massively disappointing election for Virginia. This indicates a deep challenge for democratic governance for the Commonwealth and must be remedied.
By deadline early Wednesday morning, it appeared that the evening had passed as barely a blip on the political radar. Pundits and politicos for whom election day served as Christmas went to bed wanting and unfulfilled. Less than ten percent of the state's 140 races had been close challenges. Even more disturbing, the partisan composition in the entire legislature was changed by a paltry two House of Delegates seats picked up by the Democrats.
This included an open seat in the Senate, vacated by a Democrat and filled by University alumna and former Delegate, Jean Marie Devolites, R-Fairfax County, despite a more difficult battle than even her most intimate supporters and hardened detractors would have predicted. In the House of Delegates, Democrats won three seats previously held by Republicans, but were offset by one GOP victory over a Democratic incumbent. The Democrats did see their first net gains in the General Assembly since 1975. Every year until 2003 has seen a net Republican increase. This year broke the trend.
As a single data point on the chart, most would have trouble defending assertions beyond a reasonable doubt that a Democratic resurgence has been born in Virginia. Instead, upon review of the dismal voter turnout from across the Commonwealth, even in the few districts with competitive races, a more plausible explanation emerges. Most voters have become so accustomed to the Republican hegemony that dominates all levels of government with the exception of the governor's mansion that voter turnout has become depressed by lethargy and complacence.
As mentioned in previous columns by this author, redistricting in 2001 had a great deal to do with the small degree of credible challenges to incumbents. Yet even in areas of high competitiveness in the 2003 elections, voter turnout dwindled. The weather was beautiful throughout the Commonwealth, so climate was not a factor. Instead, it appears voter apathy has begun to threaten the democratic system in the Old Dominion.
Such little change in a midterm election endangers the responsiveness of the legislature to constituent needs and viewpoints. If a legislature is to be fully accountable to a constituency, there must be a plausible threat of voter dissatisfaction with the adequacy of the representation being provided. A legislator that is made to feel too safe will less faithfully work to represent the interests of a constituency than a race in which candidates must battle for the support of the people.
This leaves Virginia with a very strange paradox: Legislators are disconnected from their constituency because they represent such safe districts. However, they simultaneously oppose tax increases at all costs -- including those being born by the free-falling quality of state services (education, health care, economic development, transportation planning, etc.). This populist anti-tax mentality seems ill at odds with a cohort of representatives who are for all practical purposes insulated from the populous.
Similar to the dangerous stagflation under the economic guidance of the Nixon administration, such unresponsive populism is the worst possible outcome from the two worlds described above. Tuesday's election demonstrates that something is broken in Virginia's system of government and politics. Voters are not voting, and leaders are frightened to lead. An initiative must be developed to increase voter turnout as well as engage legislators with the dramatic case for increasing state revenues in one way or another.
Virginia's future depends on the thoughtful stewardship of generations yet to come. It is up to current voters and students to create the change we wish to see in the Commonwealth, to paraphrase a statement of Dr. Martin Luther King. Let us hope that this week's election was an abnormality not to be repeated in the near future. But knowing Virginia politics, this columnist would not be surprised.
(Preston Lloyd's column appears Thursdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at plloyd@cavalierdaily.com.)
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