IF THE road to hell is paved with good intentions, then President Bush must have a cushy job as a road paver awaiting him. Recently, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) of Iraq signed an "Agreement on Political Process" with the Iraqi Governing Council (IGC). This agreement calls for America to hand over control of the country by the end of June 2004. While on its face noble -- and exactly what the Iraqis have been calling for -- the fact remains that if American troops withdraw prematurely, the chaos that follows will be catastrophic.
The Agreement is a sound document, but the procedure it outlines is too hurried. As reported by the CPA, the plan says that "in each governorate, the CPA will supervise a process by which an Organizing Committee of Iraqis will be formed. This Organizing Committee will include 5 individuals appointed by the Governing Council, 5 individuals appointed by the Provincial Council and 1 individual appointed by the local council of the five largest cities within the governorate. The purpose of the Organizing Committee will be to convene a Governorate Selection Caucus of notables from around the governorate ... Each Governorate Selection Caucus will elect representatives to represent the governorate in the new transitional assembly based on the governorates percentage of Iraq's population. The Transitional National Assembly will be elected no later than May 31, 2004." Furthermore, "By June 30, 2004 the new transitional administration will be recognized by the Coalition, and will assume full sovereign powers for governing Iraq. The CPA will dissolve."
This timetable is setting the stage for disaster. November was the bloodiest month for Coalition forces, and insurgent attacks showed a new level of sophistication and coordination, in one instance attacking two separate military convoys simultaneously. Worse yet, insurgent elements have shown no qualms targeting other Iraqis; in one series of bombings a few weeks ago, 18 Iraqis were killed and dozens more wounded ("Suicide car bombings kill at least 18 Iraqis", CNN.com, Nov. 22). It is clear that there are elements within Iraq that wish nothing more than to destabilize that country. Remove the U.S. army before the situation is under control, and the streets of Baghdad may run red in the strife that ensues.
In addition to the hurried schedule -- one essentially extricated from the CPA thanks to the insurgency -- notable political figures within Iraq have expressed concerns about the Agreement itself. According to the BBC, Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq stated, "One of the main objections ... is the absence of any role for the Iraqi people in the transfer of power to Iraqis ... There will be real problems if the reservations we have expressed are not taken into account." Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most powerful Shi'ite cleric in Iraq, subsequently expressed similar sentiments.
What are the possible scenarios when the CPA returns sovereignty in June? Certainly, it is conceivable that all goes well and Iraq becomes a flourishing democracy and a beacon for liberalism in the Middle East. However, that does not appear to be the most plausible outcome. More likely, Iran will press hard for Iraq to become an Islamic republic, and for a nation that has a Shi'ite majority -- one which was oppressed under Saddam Hussein -- that message should resonate soundly. Additionally, it is entirely possible northern Iraq and eastern Turkey will secede and attempt to declare the state of Kurdistan, a move which could provoke military reaction from either government. Or, Iraq becomes a successful democracy, but one which is illiberal and repressive, one which does not safeguard the rights of the minority but rather allows for legitimate tyranny of the majority.
In the final analysis, it is clear that there are huge issues that need to be worked out before turning over Iraq to the Iraqis. The Coalition could hardly have done a worse job administering the country to date, and this ill-fortuned attempt at nation building will go down in history as one of the most pitiful. However, that is no reason to abandon the country to near-certain conflict and destabilization. If the United States doesn't get this right, the road Bush is constructing may get a whole lot shorter.
(Elliot Haspel's column appears Tuesdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at ehaspel@cavalierdaily.com.)
Read More
KURTZWEIL: Threats to learning cannot be met with cowardice
By Paul Kurtzweil | 4 days agoResisting an unjust system should be at the forefront of university policy.
CASTAGNO: Closing the Federal Executive Institute fails local residents
By Conall Costagno | 5 days agoThe unwilling departure of the FEI from Charlottesville represents the severing of a constructive accord between the government and the University.
COHEN: Facing federal cuts, U.Va. must defend affordability
By Ryan Cohen | April 3, 2025In this uncertain environment, the University must act creatively and strategically to ensure it can maintain its commitment to affordability.
