PUNDITS must pray for the kind of non-stop rollercoaster that this year's frontloaded presidential selection process has become. Now that Iowa and New Hampshire have validated what had been an imploding Kerry campaign, Dean is chasing in second with a war chest of cash as the pack heads south for South Carolina: the first primary south of the Mason Dixon line. The most interesting aspect of these developments, as unpredictable as they may have turned out, is the way that the process may be able to continue through several regions of the country without a presumptive nominee gaining momentum. This quells many criticisms of the direct primary nominating process and offers hope for Virginia and many other states to enjoy an important role in what was once an event to be watched from the sidelines.
To offer some background, the presidential nominating process changes a bit every year. Over the past two decades, contenders for the nominations would bat each other around in a few small primary elections, winnowing out candidates from the bottom of the pile and passing momentum to whomever the media crowned as the frontrunner. This horse race would usually only last for a few states until the second-place candidate saw the writing on the wall: usually when he was running out of cash to spend. In 2000, for example, John McCain conceded to George W. Bush in South Carolina, then only the third state to assign delegates.
Each party holds a convention a few months before the general election in which delegates from each state cast votes for the candidate who won their state. These delegates are "bound" to vote for candidates according to how well that candidate did in the primary or caucus in that particular state. The Democrats also have super-delegates who are not bound, but this begins to become more complex and is not worth elaborating for the purpose of this column. After the initial rounds of primaries during what is commonly referred to as the "winnowing" process that precedes the convention, a perceived frontrunner may begin to gain support from subsequent states in their primaries.
Eventually, a candidate wins enough primaries that he is awarded sufficient delegates to be guaranteed the nomination at the convention even though many states had not yet had their turn to hold a primary. This results in what politicos call "frontloading" as each state races to hold its primary earlier so that it may be relevant to the selection process. Clearly there are economic advantages to the media coverage as would be clear to anyone who has noticed the fervor in New Hampshire, traditionally the first primary state in the nation.
This race is different for a number of exciting reasons. Dean must have been counting on a strong showing in New Hampshire, a state adjacent to his own home of Vermont, to catapult him through South Carolina. Dean has not polled well in the South and his attempts to appeal to those with "confederate flags on the backs of their pickup trucks" have not been well met. Dean may hope for additional support in the West and Midwest, but no Democratic candidate has won in the general election without carrying at least five Southern states.
Kerry has sparred with Dean for support in the more liberal region of the Northeast, but he too faces a difficult road in the South. This leaves the door open for Edwards, the senator from North Carolina who finished second in Iowa, to gain momentum next week in the Palmetto State. Clark, who tied with Edwards for third in New Hampshire behind Dean, did not compete in Iowa, instead hoping to make a splash in the Granite state. Hailing from Arkansas, Clark may find greater success in Missouri and Oklahoma, which also fall next Tuesday along with South Carolina.
While political regionalism is nothing new in national politics, frontloading had all but eliminated many primaries from acting as anything more than a rubber stamp on the "presumptive" nominee. This year, at least four candidates will continue to campaign deep into the Democratic primary calendar. This excites political discourse in more states and will increase voter participation in many states that would otherwise have had little turnout once the nomination was a foregone conclusion.
Virginia, too, as the second primary to be held in the South, will have a role to play in the nomination. As a state where a fiscally conservative Democrat was elected governor, Edwards' chances will likely depend on a strong showing in the Old Dominion. While the nominating process has its flaws, this year's course of events appears to offer hope for a more democratic (small "d") and egalitarian nominating system where many states and regions will have the ability to play a role and make a difference.
(Preston Lloyd's column appears Thursdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at plloyd@cavalierdaily.com.)
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