FAIRFAX -- Winning an impressive majority yesterday in the Virginia primary, as well as a strong showing in Tennessee, the John Kerry cruiser is all but certain to have a successful return voyage to Boston for the Democratic convention. With his victories tonight, Kerry shattered any doubts about his ability to win -- and win big -- among Southern Democrats. However, the Democrats should not rush to any conclusions and assume this race is all said and done, because they need to make the senator even more electable.
To be sure, it's hard to overstate the importance of Kerry's victories tonight. In the Commonwealth, Kerry beat Edwards and Clark combined on their home turf -- Pete Gillen should take notes on how to win so well on the road. Tonight was Edwards' and Clark's best chance, and Kerry steamrolled his way through. Certainly, his victories tonight are the biggest yet.
However, the coast is not clear. No recent Democratic nominee ever had such an easy path to the nomination in recent history. Late primary surprises -- especially if the field narrows to the two senators -- as well as the potential for intense media and Republican scrutiny can still challenge the frontrunner.
Kerry should not regret these challenges. A one-on-one challenge with Edwards would not only give Kerry, Edwards and the Democratic Party more free airtime, but it also would allow Kerry to develop a more substantial platform gently scrubbed by Democratic competition.
Kerry has already learned a lot from his opponents. From Dr. Dean he learned to strongly criticize the Bush administration's foreign policy and to promise "to give America back its heart and soul." Also in his victory speech, he borrowed Edwards' theme for opportunity for all. And with Clark, he reminds Americans that he, not George W. Bush, belongs on an aircraft carrier. The democratic process has helped Kerry, and he should welcome the constructive criticism of his allies, rather than march into the destructive critiques of the enemy prematurely.
Almost all exit polls reveal that most Democratic primary voters care about one thing when voting: electabality. In almost every state, Democratic voters believe Kerry is the most electable.
However, most pundits, including our own Larry J. Sabato, don't believe the Democratic voters have it right. They have a valid point. As Democrats begin looking ahead toward November rather than June, one fundamental question remains: How electable is this "Massachusetts liberal?"
In no way is John Kerry a Michael Dukakis. Some members of the media already want to frame Kerry as a radical New England liberal, and certainly Rove and Co. will drop millions of dollars to make Americans, especially in the South, believe that damning characteristic. But in this era of American politics, Kerry can resemble a successful Massachusetts liberal: John Fitzgerald Kennedy.
Kennedy beat Nixon in 1960 not because his policies were greatly more popular, but because with the advent of television, Kennedy appeared young, vibrant and intelligent, while Nixon appeared grumpy, ugly and tired.
Today's politics are even more focused on personal stories rather than policy. The evidence of the politics of the person, rather than of issues, is everywhere. From Kennedy's success to Clinton's problems, to tonight when CNN cut away from the speech once Kerry began speaking of his specific vision to take back America, personal character means a lot to American voters, and Kerry has a lot of it.
Kerry's electabality depends on his personal story -- and Kerry's history puts Dubya to shame. There is no doubt whether Kerry served in 'Nam. There is no doubt about Kerry's patriotism and service to his country. And there is no doubt that Kerry can embarrass the stuttering Bush in a national debate.
Moreover, Kerry has charisma and passion that Dukakis and Gore lacked. If Al Gore taught the Democratic Party anything, it is that personality matters.
Admittedly, 30 years of Senate experience, with a liberal record (although noticeably more moderate during this century), can and will plague John Kerry. Geography will haunt Kerry as well when trying to carry states south of the Mason-Dixon line and west of the Appalachians. The more practice Kerry has defending himself now, the more challenging he becomes against Bush.
Kerry won big tonight, but Democrats cannot, and should not, hear the fat lady yet. Kerry is more electable than most pundits give him credit for, and if the primary season rolls on, Kerry can truly show America how easily he can defeat the incumbent.
(Patrick Harvey is a Cavalier Daily opinion editor. He can be reached at pharvey@cavalierdaily.com.)
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