As the 2004 baseball season reaches its midpoint, I continue to weep nightly as it becomes clearer and clearer that last season was indeed the Red Sox's year. Regardless, between my intense interest in the AL playoff races and my juggling of three fantasy baseball teams, I've followed America's pastime very closely. Thus, I offer my thoughts on the first half of the season through the distribution of these awards. And if these summaries are a little stat-heavy, I apologize and admit that I recently finished reading Moneyball (Note: all stats current through Monday night's games).
MVP
AL (co-winners): Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, BOS -- On no other team is the offense so centralized. Boston's Dominican duo are a mainstay in the 3-4 hole of the lineup, and both of them rank in the American League's top five in home runs, runs batted in, total bases, doubles, extra base hits and slugging percentage. They account for 43.1 percent of Boston's home runs this year and more than a third of their extra base hits and RBI. If you subtract Ramirez and Ortiz from the Sox lineup, Boston's team slugging percentage drops 49 points from .453 to a pedestrian .404.
NL: Barry Bonds, SF -- Even in walking, he's the most dominant player in the game. His majors-leading on-base percentage (.790) and his slugging pct. (.619) are silly, as are the fact that, with 121, he has 50 more walks than second place and has more intentional walks (63) than the next five guys combined. San Fran is only a half game out of first and is fourth in the NL in runs despite the fact that no other Giant regular is hitting above .300.
Cy Young
AL: Mark Mulder, OAK -- A strong case can be made for Mulder, Curt Schilling or Mariano Rivera, but the nod here goes to Mulder, who has recorded an 11-2 record and leads the AL with four complete games and a 2.95 earned run average. Schilling has Pedro Martinez and Rivera has Tom Gordon setting him up. Ideally, Mulder has Tim Hudson and Barry Zito, but Zito is struggling through a sub-.500 season and Hudson is on the disabled list.
NL: Jason Schmidt, SF -- Let me say up front that this is not entirely out of spite for Roger Clemens. The pair boasts identical 10-2 records and very similar ERAs (Clemens leads by only 0.07) and strikeouts (Clemens leads by one). The difference lies in Schmidt's command that gives him a decisive advantage in walks plus hits per inning pitched (WHIP) -- 0.97 to 1.20 -- and the duo's only two shutouts. Hitters are batting .215 against Clemens (as opposed to .175 for Schmidt), and San Francisco has a better team record.
Manager of the Year
AL: Lou Piniella, TAM -- The Devil Rays didn't lose a series in the month of June, went on a 12-game winning streak and won 30 of 40 games from May 20 to July 3.
NL: Bruce Bochy, SD -- Mark Loretta (.318 BA, 6 HR, 34 RBI) is the Padres' only All-Star, yet inconceivably the Pads are clinging on to a slight first-place lead in the NL West. Sure, I'm a sucker for last-to-first turnarounds, and their hodge-podge starting rotation better be grateful that Bochy has successfully rotated dominant Akinori Otsuka (2.29 ERA) and Trevor Hoffman (1.82 ERA, 21 saves) to shore up close games (17-9 in one-run games, including 14-1 at home).
Biggest Surprise
AL: Kenny Rogers, TX -- His ERA (3.63) and WHIP (1.22) are pretty good. His 12-2 record is sparkling. After going 44-36 over the last four years, Rogers has Texas in a first-place tie in the AL West.
NL: Scott Rolen, STL -- We knew he was good. But this good? His 80 RBI lead the majors, his slugging pct. (.619) is good for fourth and his on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) -- 1.039 -- is fifth. Most importantly, his Cardinals have the best record in the NL, scoring the third most runs in the league.
How does he still have a job?
AL (tie): Terry Francona, BOS -- Having attended last Thursday's 13-inning Red Sox loss in Yankee Stadium, I can safely say that the leadership on this team has not improved since last year. Francona, Boston's (mis)manager, in that one game pinch-ran for one of his two best hitters after he was already on third base, allowed Kevin Millar and Dave McCarty to bat with the bases loaded against the Grim Reaper himself (Rivera) and didn't get either Trot Nixon or Nomar "Garciapop-up" into the lineup until too late or not at all. After Thursday's heartbreaker -- a loss in what was by far Boston's most important game of the season -- he said, "I've never been so proud of people in my life." Proud of whom? The nitwit executives who continue to pay you?
Sidney Ponson, BAL -- The numbers are staggering. Staggeringly bad. This is the so-called ace the Giants traded for down the stretch last year. For the Orioles, he's compiled these numbers: 3-12, 6.29 ERA, 1.68 WHIP. That ERA is 95th best out of the 97 pitchers who meet the minimum innings standard. His WHIP ranks 93rd.
NL: Mike Cameron, NYM -- His .215 BA is worst among NL qualifiers, and his 82 strikeouts are fourth. Cameron's position on this list is debatable because with Richard Hidalgo's acquisition, Cameron is soon to be permanently without a job.
Midseason predictions for the playoffs
AL Division winners: New York, Chicago, Oakland
AL Wild Card: Boston
NL Division winners: Philadelphia, St. Louis, San Francisco
NL Wild Card: Chicago
World Series: St. Louis over New York
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