WHILE Newsweek andTIME released polls conducted during the Republican National Convention showing Bush up by 11 percentage points, one has to wonder what the Republicans did right and how the Democrats managed to get a bounce essentially equivalent to a big fat goose egg.
After the Democratic National Convention, campaign operatives easily explained away Kerry's non-existent lift in the poll numbers by the historically small number of undecided voters in this election season. Somehow, this logic did not apply to the Republicans, which was evident after the comparatively enormous surge in the polls following the Republican National Convention.
In regard to conventions, Politics Prof. Paul Freedman opined, "In an ordinary year, if you can't get a bounce after what is essentially a four-day scripted advertisement for your party to get your message out, then you're in trouble. But this is not an ordinary year."
Kerry actually went down in some polls after his convention. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted July 19-21, before the convention, showed Kerry in the lead 49 percent to 47 percent. The same poll released after the convention showed Bush leading 51 percent to 47 percent. The most recent poll shows Bush up 52 percent, Kerry 45 percent.
Why the stark degrees of success? The message of each convention, as well as the icons delivering their respective messages, accounted for at least some of the contrasting results.
The Democratic National Convention focused heavily on Kerry's Vietnam service. His Senate record was virtually ignored by all, including Kerry, for some odd reason. Perhaps this is because he doesn't have many significant pieces of legislation to claim as his; Kerry was and is so consumed and enthralled with his four-month stint of service in Vietnam 30 years ago, that he was even reprimanded by former President Bill Clinton. The New York Times reported on Monday that Clinton talked with Kerry for 90 minutes from his hospital bed, providing words of wisdom "on how to reinvigorate his candidacy." BBC News noted that Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., stated the Kerry campaign had "a very confused message in August, and the Republicans had a very clear and concise one."
Aside from the overall theme of the Democratic National Convention, the speakers disseminating the message greatly affected the party's perception. While both sides accused each other of appearing too moderate to pander to the so-called swing voters through the convention speeches, the Republicans ended up with the upper hand.
The vast majority of Democrats that spoke at the Democratic National Convention in Boston were from the far left of the party (e.g. Howard Dean, Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., former Vice President Al Gore). However, their true voices were stifled to appear moderate. All of the cable news channels reported and discussed DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe's editing of the speeches and personal vetting of them in order to portray an appealing image to independent voters.
The Republican National Convention featured speakers that encompassed the whole spectrum of the party. Pro-choice Republicans, those not marching in lockstep with the president on the issue of gay marriage and all-around moderate and even liberal Republicans were given key roles (former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., to name a few). Some of the speakers differed from President Bush on a few issues, but they all stood with him and the mainstream of the party on the subjects that matter most to the party, such as the war on terror and the economy. The RNC guests genuinely reflected the big tent of the Republican party. Its counterpart did not.
The party accepts Republicans who differ from the president warmly; Democrats don't tolerate dissent. Conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats (pro-life) are shunned. Take Zell Miller, for example. He didn't wake up one day and decide to speak at the opposite party's convention and heavily criticize his own. His long-standing disagreements with the party, and the party's less than enthused response to his views caused him to jump ship.
McAuliffe characterized the Republican National Convention as a "charade" and a "masquerade ball," completely forgetting the displeasure of some of the DNC delegates about the party's moderate platform on issues such as Iraq and its entire avoidance of gay marriage.
According to the Associated Press, Democrats blamed Bush's bounce on "four days of mean, vicious attacks" on Kerry and "relentless negativity." Neither convention was unreservedly negative; the Republicans were more effective because of their honest display of diversity within their party, which genuinely appeals to undecided voters.
In reality, the Democrats are simply furious over the fact that Bush got a bigger bounce out of his convention, and, arguably, even the Democratic National Convention, than Kerry did. The Kerry campaign scrambled to recruit new advisors to provide, once again, a nuanced image of himself and the party. Bush, on the other hand, has remained steadfast in his stances on the issues, and he was rewarded, at least for a fleeting moment, for his and his party's sincere depiction of its views.
Whitney Blake is a Cavalier Daily associate editor. She can be reached at wblake@cavalierdaily.com.
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