IS VIRGINIA in play? Absolutely. You'll find no disagreement between Republicans in Virginia and those Democrats who put the Old Dominion in the "swing state" column. The Commonwealth is almost evenly divided between self-identifying Democrats and Republicans, and it was only recently than Virginia achieved her first ever GOP majority in her congressional delegation. However, with a considerable majority of those self-identified Democrats actually leaning to the right or far right on the political spectrum, the Mother of States and Statesmen has a 40-year streak of sending GOP electors to Richmond. Before then, a powerful political machine engineered by former Gov. and Sen. Harry Byrd maintained the natural bias toward the Democrats that we can trace back to the "War of Northern Aggression." Virginia is in play, yes, but only when the playing field isn't level. Unfortunately, for all Virginians, this is one of those years.
Liberal Democrats who hope to give our 13 electoral votes to John Kerry believe altogether different reasons that Virginia is now a swing state. The common perception is that the constant expansion of the boom counties of the D.C. Metro area (particularly in the "sophisticated Yankee" transplant demographic) is finally giving those Tidewater, Southside and Valley "hicks" the good "progressive" government they have always needed. Yet from the days of the Byrd political machine and even in the 2001 gubernatorial election, the Democratic margin of victory is made in those very "backwoods" regions that the Cosmopolitan NoVa-ians look down upon. The turnout in the 9th congressional district and the 5th congressional district have a lot more to do with Democratic victory in Virginia than the turnout in the 10th and 11th. The turnout in these socially conservative counties can still produce radical leftists like Rick Boucher of the 9th, as long as they can play on their "good old boy" network established by the master politicians of the darker days of the Commonwealth.
Virginia might be in play but for two reasons the Republicans are going to win again. The first is a little elbow grease. The second and most important reason is that the Republicans, from the top of the ticket down, have vastly superior candidates.
Most candidates don't even warrant serious opposition. Tom Davis in the 11th is a career public servant who has taken on the role of reforming and improving the lives of D.C. residents as the de facto executive of the District. Frank Wolf of the 10th district fights not only for his constituents, but also for the freedom of worship for the people still oppressed by Red China. Randy Forbes of the 4th district was elected in a special election in 2001 to a traditionally Democratic seat, but here in 2004, the Democrats couldn't even find anyone over 30 to challenge him. Bob Goodlatte of the 6th district was going to have an opponent, but he couldn't even find enough support to get on the ballot against the chairman of the House Agriculture Committee. The Democrats can't even mount serious opposition to Jo-Ann Davis of the 1st district, and Delegate Thelma Drake is poised to retake Ed Shrock's seat in the 2nd.
Great challengers like Kevin Triplett, Winsome Sears and Lisa Marie Cheney are poised to make historic runs against longtime Democratic incumbents Rick Boucher, Bobby Scott and Jim Moran. Our own Virgil Goode will handily carry the 5th district against Al "Instant Runoff Voting" Weed, and, yes, the President of the United States of America will be re-elected with the help of the people of Virginia.
The Commonwealth is home to thousands of military families, and to thousands more who work hard to support our armed forces. Virginia is the state where the second-most number of lives was lost on Sept. 11, 2001. The people of the Commonwealth understand that we live in a time where America is once again called upon to lead the world to a freer and safer tomorrow. As the Virginia Flag Salute points out, it was here that "liberty and independence were born." George W. Bush is the candidate of liberty and independence, and the people of Virginia will live up to their proud history to stand by him this November.
Ali Ahmad is chair of the College Republicans.
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