PERHAPS one of the biggest surprises in the 2004 presidential race is right here in our own Commonwealth of Virginia. While our 13 electoral votes are typically placed in the Republican column without a second thought, this year's polls are showing that it may not be as red as the GOP would like. Current Rasmussen polls show Bush leading the Old Dominion by 5 percentage points, 50 percent to 45 percent. Now, this is not to say that Virginia is a deep purple state; it definitely leans Republican. However, the state that last went blue in 1964 when it voted for Lyndon B. Johnson could prove to be a shock come Nov. 2. Here's a look at which factors will help decide the fate of Virginia's role in the 2004 presidential election.
The Democratic primary
First and foremost, everyone should keep in mind the results of Virginia's 2004 Democratic presidential primary. Kerry, the Massachusetts liberal, beat Edwards, the Southern son of a mill worker, by a margin of 25 percent. This provides a good starting point, demonstrating that even in the South there is a place for Northern political thought.
Northern Virginia
It should come as no surprise to U.Va. students that the region that dominates Grounds in sheer numbers will also be a crucial bloc in the 2004 Virginia presidential election. Specifically, Fairfax County, Virginia's most populous, will be important in deciding who wins the election. No Democrat who has ever won state-wide office did so without the support of Fairfax. Currently, the county is pretty evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. In 2000, Bush barely edged out Gore in the area by 48.9 percent to 47.5 percent.
But this year, Kerry strategists believe they can overcome history with the increase of new voters to the NoVa area. Specifically, The Washington Post reported recently that there has been "an increase in voter registration in the immigrant communities of Alexandria, Arlington and Fairfax and a movement of Democrats to the ring of outer counties in search of less expensive housing than they can afford closer in." If these new voters prove to be Democrats, as they are projected to be, it could mean an upset for Republicans in Northern Virginia and possibly across the state. The region is clearly winnable for the Democrats, as Mark Warner was able to carry Fairfax County in the 2001 gubernatorial race. Additionally, the current chair of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, Gerry Connolly, is a Democrat. This mixed county can easily go left.
Mark Warner
Perhaps to the surprise of the nation, Virginia elected a Democratic governor and lieutenant governor to boot, which could be very useful to the Kerry campaign. Warner has made it clear that he thinks that Virginia could be Kerry country. Like others, Warner recognizes that Virginia is by no means a toss-up, but maintains that it is not totally out of the running for the Democrats. As reported in the National Journal, Warner said, "There are other states more significant, more important, to their electoral strategy... We're one of the states on the bubble, and I think they underestimate the enthusiasm Virginia Democrats feel this year." Before the Democratic National Convention in Boston this summer, Warner, along with Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano, offered Kerry first-hand advice on winning traditionally Republican states, saying that he "should emphasize fiscal discipline." Having a popular ally in Richmond will certainly help Kerry and Edwards when they make appearances across the Commonwealth.
While the Old Dominion leans to the right, there is still a distinct possibility for an upset. If Kerry can garner enough votes in growing liberal areas such as Hampton Roads (with a growing African American community) and rally enough support to carry Fairfax County, then there is no reason he can't also carry the state. However, if nothing else, the national attention on Virginia as a possible swing state demonstrates that there are no certainties for the Bush camp. Even traditional red states are up for grabs, which means that Bush and his supporters will have to spend money in areas they once believed to be safe. This diversion of funds can only help Kerry win states that truly are a deep shade of purple.
Ally Gold is president of the University Democrats.
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