THE 2004 presidential election is just one week away, and there is one thing that is certain.: This one's going to be close. To give you an idea of just how close, let me give you a run-down of the latest polling from some of the more respected organizations. As of Sunday, Gallup has Bush up by 8 percent, Zogby (which has been the most accurate poll for the past two presidential elections) has Bush up by 2 percent, the American Research Group has Kerry up by 3 percent and Rasmussen has Bush up by 0.4 percent. Taking an average, that comes out to Bush being up about 2 percentage points, well within a polling margin of error.
However, as we learned in 2000, these national polls are totally meaningless. Rather, we have an electoral college that means the American people don't directly elect the president, and what really matters is state polling. Through analyzing state polling, it's now seeming increasingly likely that in January, people will need to begin getting used to referring to President Kerry.
To win the presidency, a candidate needs to receive 270 electoral votes. After redistricting in 2002, following the 2000 census, if Bush were to win the same states he did in 2000, and Kerry were to win all the states Gore won in 2000, Bush would win the election 278-260. However, it's looking more and more like that is not going to happen.
Kerry seems practically guaranteed to win all the states that Gore won in 2000 except Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Pennsylvania and New Mexico. President Bush seems guaranteed to win all the same states he did in 2000 except New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida and Nevada (sorry, Virginia, but as much as we liked the brief attention, we're going to be a red state again this year). These are some of the so-called "battleground states." However, as polling has gone on, Kerry has begun pulling away in Pennsylvania, New Mexico and New Hampshire, and he will probably win all three of those. At the same time, Bush has begun pulling away in Nevada, and he will probably once again claim that state.
That leaves just Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio and Florida. Polling in these five states has been extremely close. As a result, for a Kerry victory, he needs to win either Florida along with just one of the remaining four to get past 270 electoral votes, or he needs to win Ohio along with just two of the three states of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa. For a Bush victory, he needs to win both Florida and Ohio or Florida along with two of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa or Ohio along with Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa.
Already, just from looking at what each candidate needs to do, Kerry's path to victory seems a little simpler, needing only Florida plus one state or Ohio plus two. However, once state polls are taken into account, it seems very possible that Kerry may actually win all five of those states. The latest respected polls give Bush a 2-point lead in Iowa (Zogby) and a 2-point lead in Minnesota (Rasmussen), while they give Kerry a 2-point lead in Wisconsin (Zogby) and a 6-point lead in Ohio (Ohio University). Florida is, of course, a perfect tie (Rasmussen).
So how is it that I look at those numbers and can declare that Kerry will win all five states? It's simple history. First of all, the numbers don't include undecided voters. Historically, when an incumbent is running for re-election, not only in the presidency, but in any race in America, electoral-vote.com reports that the undecided voters go about 2 to 1 for the challenger when actually voting. Those numbers alone would tilt all five of the states to Kerry. However, there are other issues as well, all of which point to Kerry's position being stronger than the polls show.
For one thing, polling is done through land telephone lines. It is now estimated that about 10 million Americans use cell phones exclusively, meaning that cell phone-only voters, who are not polled, make up about 3 percent of the electorate. When considering that electoral-vote.com reports that cell phone-only Americans tend to be young and are often from lower-class families, two demographics that are traditionally Democratic, this makes a large difference in polling.
As another issue, most polls screen for "likely voters." This year, this screen is a fairly poor indicator. Numbers for "likely voters" are based on expectations for low turnout, and this year looks to have much higher turnout than has been seen in decades. Recognizing this, the actual vote will likely be closer to the polls of just "registered voters." When compared, "registered voter" polls are giving much better results for Kerry than "likely voter" polls, and so it lends to the idea that Kerry's election day performance will beat his performance in polls.
The old saying goes that "the only poll that matters is the one on election day." In as close a race as this one, that saying has never been truer than it is today. Everyone should vote, because in elections like this, every vote really does count. While it may appear that John Kerry is headed to a victory, that is far from a guarantee. However, those who may try to tell you that Bush is in the lead right now, or that if the election were held today President Bush would be re-elected, are either delusional or simply lying.
Sam Leven's column appears Tuesdays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at sleven@cavalierdaily.com.
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