AMID WIDESPREAD terrorist attacks, Iraqi elections, key to the U.S. plan for democratizing Iraq, are scheduled to take place Jan. 30. That date has Bush administration officials as well as millions of Iraqis profoundly nervous. Terrorist groups have repeatedly threatened attacks targeting voters in many districts on election day, especially in regions dominated by Sunni Muslims. Yet despite recent emphasis on Iraqi ethnic divisions and outlandish predictions of civil war, a stable Iraq can be built on the basis of these elections, provided Sunni Muslims have a voice in drafting a new constitution.
It is impossible to analyze the upcoming elections without reference to Iraq's religious and ethnic groupings; however, these divisions are often overemphasized. About 60 percent of Iraqis are Shia Muslim, yet since at least the time of British control after World War I, Sunni Arabs, who comprise 20 percent of the population, have dominated Iraq's government, through the reign of Saddam Hussein. Shia political movements, most prominently the al-Dawa party of Mohammed al-Sadr, were repressed under Saddam's rule, and a major predominately Shia revolt took place in the aftermath of the first Gulf War. With this history, some analysts predicted that Iraq would break into civil war between the Sunnis and Shi'ites (plural of Shia) in the wake of a U.S. invasion and diminution of Sunni political power.
Yet there does not appear to be a fundamental conflict between Sunnis and Shi'ites. The political party widely perceived as having the greatest claim on Sunni loyalty is the Iraqi Islamic Party, whose political agenda emphasizes Islamic identity and imposition of Sharia law. This platform does not appear to differ profoundly from the main Shia party listing, the United Iraqi alliance, which under Ayotollah Ali Sistani's leadership has called for an Iraqi constitution grounded on Islam that nonetheless promotes democracy and avoids direct clerical rule, a la Iran. As Sistani spokesman Jalal Eddin al-Sagheer said, "What we want is a constitution that respects differences, but also works for the Islamic identity of the Iraqi people and builds a society that doesn't oppose Islam."
Indeed, civil war has not broken out even as Shi'ite leaders, such as Ayotollah Ali al-Sistani, have exercised growing influence and the inevitability of Shia control of government has become clearer. Iraqi Shia nationalism should not be understated: despite being shut out from power, Iraqi Shi'ites largely fought for their country even as it went to war against the self-consciously Shia government of Ayotollah Khomeni's Iran during the Iraq-Iran War.
Though the insurgency is often portrayed in the media as a united Sunni movement, the fact is that mainstream Sunni parties are prepared to work within the political process, even as they voice concern over the security situation. Calls for a delay in elections by Sunni groups have not been a strategic ploy to maintain Sunni hegemony, but rather reflect the unstable security situation in predominately Sunni regions. The Iraqi Islamic Party, the main Sunni party, decided to boycott the elections in late December only because of the security situation; their leaders have not endorsed or participated in the insurgency. Even moderate Sunni leaders whosupport an American presence in Iraq, like the venerable Adnan Pachachi, have acknowledged the seriousness of the security situation and called for an election delay on that basis. More recently, the Iraqi Islamic Party has conceded the inevitability of elections, indicating that they will accept the legitimacy of a new government while seeking influence through informal means: "We are going to have to try to influence through talking with other groups," said a party official. The Iraqi Islamic Party has kept its listing on the ballot and has urged Sunni participation in some local elections.
Sunni leaders, however, are counting on having a voice in framing the new Iraqi constitution, and the Americans, as well as Shia groups, should ensure that Sunnis have a voice in the process. Sunni representation will likely be artificially low as residents of Sunni regions are deterred from voting by armed militants, and as a matter of fundamental fairness the terrorists should not succeed in delegitimizing the new Iraqi government.
Noah Peters' column usually appears Fridays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at npeters@cavalierdaily.com.
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