What's happening around the ACC? This was supposed to be the toughest conference in the history of the league, one in which seven, yes, seven teams made the tournament.
At one point, seven teams were ranked, the Virginia Cavaliers among them, but that number has dropped to just three: second-ranked UNC, sixth-ranked Wake Forest and seventh-ranked Duke.
Conference coaches have been quick to point out that teams are just beating up on each other, whereas outside commentators look at the Big East and still see five ranked teams.
Personally, I think it's hard to think anything but the former, as there were still seven ACC teams ranked the week before conference play started and five the week after conference play. The Terps are .500 in the ACC, yet won at Duke, and this somehow means that the ACC is weak. Au contraire, mon freres.
The latest bracketology has five ACC teams making the tourney with another one, Miami, one of the last four out. The conference is just beating up on one another. And wait until next year, when Boston College, undefeated until Tuesday, comes in.
With that in mind, here's my final prediction for the ACC standings:
1: UNC. Despite the loss at Duke last night, the Heels will be atop the ACC come March. UNC is the most talented and athletic team in the country, relying on a fast-paced offense and fantastic ball movement. All but one of their 19wins have been by double-digits, it's quite possible they do not lose again, making them my pick right now to cut down the nets in St. Louis.
2: Wake Forest. The Deacs don't have as many stars but they go very deep. Chris Paul and Justin Gray can take over games, and inside force Eric Williams does not get into foul trouble anymore. Though Wake still has to travel to Cameron, it benefits from three home games against teams with three or less ACC wins.
3: Duke. The Devils have by far the toughest slate of the three contenders, they still have to go to Maryland, to Georgia Tech and to UNC, on top of a home bout with Wake. (Plus, they start with one more loss than the other two after dropping their second home game of the year to UNC). They are immensely talented but, with their schedule, if they get to 12 wins in the conference, they've done an unbelievable job down the stretch.
4: Georgia Tech. Here's where it gets interesting. I think the Jackets, last year's NCAA runner-up, will be sparked by the return of leading scorer B.J. Elder, who has been sidelined with a high ankle sprain since Jan. 1. The Jackets will win five of six down the stretch to get ten wins in the ACC, including an upset of Duke at home.
5: Maryland. The most difficult to understand, the Terps beat Duke in Cameron yet lost to Clemson and Miami. This is still a young team but I think Gary Williams pulls them together and they will get to .500.
6: Virginia Tech. The Hokies started strong but they will fade down the stretch -- at least somewhat -- with tough road battles ahead of them. They have shown they can win on the road (Miami and Georgia Tech) but their inexperience could haunt them down the stretch. Tech gets to 7-9 by beating Miami at home and Clemson down south, but their NCAA hopes fall short.
7: Miami. After a fast start, the 'Canes will struggle their way in. They find one more win -- likely at Florida State -- but that should be it. This is the type of team that can be dangerous, however, with its potent three-guard lineup.
8 (tie): N.C. State. Home wins against Maryland and Virginia Tech get the Wolfpack to five wins, but a difficult schedule makes more than that tough to foresee. Put Herb Sendek on the hot seat with Mr. Gillen.
8 (tie): Virginia. After it looked like it may not win another game, Virginia pulled a rabbit out of its hat at N.C. State. The schedule is favorable to the Cavs, with home games against N.C. State, Virginia Tech and Maryland. Still, after struggling at home against Florida State and Miami, not one game is guaranteed.
10: Florida State. This team has certainly underperformed, especially with out-of-conference losses to Kent State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. The 'Noles have the talent to score some upsets down the stretch, but there's no indication it will.
11: Clemson. This team smacked Maryland at home, and with home bouts against Miami, Florida State and Virginia Tech, the Tigers could sneak out one or two more. Or none.
As always, it should be a great February shaping up for an even better March. You can find me firmly planted on my couch.
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