Pete Gillen's annual "Save My Job" campaign hits a critical fork in the road tonight when his Cavaliers, riding a three-game winning streak to the outside fringes of the NCAA bubble, travel to Chapel Hill to face the No. 4 Tar Heels.
Last Feb. 13, Gillen's seat was about as hot as could be with Virginia sitting at 12-9 (2-8 ACC). But the fiery Irishman led Virginia to four wins in their last six games, relying on last-second heroics from Todd Billet to beat then-No. 15 Georgia Tech, as well as Clemson and then-No. 12 UNC. The Cavs also upended then-No. 11 Wake Forest in this stretch, saving Gillen's job and giving the Cavs momentum into this season.
After last season, Gillen met with Athletic Director Craig Littlepage, who announced that he would retain Gillen.
He didn't seem to regret it in the fall of 2004 as the Cavs opened 8-1, even spending a brief stint in the Top 25. But then injuries hit, Jason Clark's grades left him ineligible and the Cavs took their seemingly-annual ACC swoon.
Fast-forward eight losses and Gillen's seat became so hot he couldn't even sit down. Many clamored for him to be fired mid-season after his team lost by 34 to UNC and by 19 at sub-.500 Providence.
Still, Littlepage stated two weeks ago that no decision had been made, and it became apparent that Gillen's job was tied almost directly to the team making the NCAA tournament.
So, as of 11 days ago, moving companies were circling Gillen's house, and I was skeptical that the Cavs could win another game. Then Gillen got crafty.
After seven years in the ACC, he figured out that his Cavaliers would not be outscoring anyone, especially with J.R. Reynolds struggling to put the biscuit in the basket.
So he decided to slow the game down. First, he went small with three guards usually on the floor. Second, he limited Elton Brown's minutes in an attempt to maximize his hustle. Third, he installed what I like to call the "Princeton Offense without Cutting or Good Shooting." Gillen calls for motion, the team dribbles the ball around for 15 seconds and then tries to score. It ain't pretty, but it limits scoring and Virginia is 3-0 with it, so who knows?
Right now, Virginia sits at 4-7 in the ACC and 13-9 overall. Somehow, they have the ninth-best strength of schedule in the country with an RPI of 46, their biggest win being an upset of then-No. 10 Arizona.
Virginia will probably need nine ACC wins (including the ACC tourney) to go dancing and save Gillen's job.
Wins at home over Maryland and N.C. State are a must, as is a road bout in Tallahassee with Florida State. That gets seven wins. They need to get at least one win in the ACC tournament. The critical ninth win can come from three possible avenues: at UNC tonight, at fifth-ranked Wake Forest a week from Sunday or in the second round of the ACC tourney against either UNC, Wake or Duke depending on final standings.
Let's just say the odds are against Gillen. He is 2-4 in Chapel Hill, 1-5 in Winston-Salem, and 1-6 in the ACC tourney. Plus, his seven Virginia teams are just 1-20 playing ranked ACC opponents on the road, the sole win coming in a 2003 miracle over then-No. 8 Maryland.
On the plus side, Gillen should have one more weapon on his side tonight than he previously had at his disposal: anger. His team should be irate about the way they were embarrassed at home two and a half weeks ago by UNC. They didn't lose -- they got smacked around. So Virginia should come out playing for the most anyone can ever play for: pride. The question remains if that will be enough.
I'd love to see Gillen succeed. He is an outstanding ambassador of the program and is well-respected by all of his peers, many of whom have come to his defense during the Cavaliers' skid. I happened to be at BW3's last week for his weekly radio show and saw the way he interacted with young children. There is no doubt he is a great man.
Maybe there's a chance that he didn't lose the players and did finally figure things out. Maybe his offense will work and the Tar Heels will be flustered. On the contrary, maybe Littlepage already made his decision about next year and Gillen will be gone.
Either way, I find myself in a familiar position these past two Februarys. Weeks after pushing the Cavaliers away, I find myself clinging to hope -- hope that something good might happen. I liken this program to that ex-girlfriend who broke your heart yet every year she flirts with you just enough to give you a flicker of hope. Your heart catches on, and you can't do anything to restrain yourself, no matter hard you try. All over again, you fall for her.
Such is my affection for Virginia basketball. I'm hopeless, grasping that this might be the time it turns around, even though that would defy logic.
There are some people who do not want Gillen back, and at times I have thought it may be against the long-term interests of the program, but I just cannot bring myself to root against Virginia -- especially against Carolina.
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