OVER THE past week a diverse group of people ranging from talk show hosts to high-ranking government officials have united in warning that the Chinese dragon represents a growing threat to good old Uncle Sam. Last Thursday, CIA director Porter Goss warned the Senate Armed Services Committee that, "The modernisation of China's military and its growing expeniture is something that threatens our forces and interests."
While these analysts are right to say that China's rapidly expanding economy will transform the international system, they are wrong in concluding the relations between China and the United States must be inherently adversarial. Because of this, the political leadership of both nations should acknowledge that China and America share a wide range of interests and that both would benefit from cooperation on international issues.
The issue of American-Chinese relations will be a defining issue in the coming decades in light of China's growing economic and military power. China's rapidly expanding economy, which grew at an average rate of 9.2 percent from 1992 to 2002, along with its population of 1.2 billion people, mean that its economy is carrying a greater degree of importance to the international economy. Oded Shenkar, author of "The Chinese Century" even stated that China will replace the United States as the worlds largest economy as early as 2025. China's position in the world is further magnified by the fact that it has the world's largest military at 2.3 million personnel, which it is currently in the process of enhancing through purchases of advanced European-made weaponry.
While many in the United States view these facts with alarm, they should remember that America and China have a wide range of shared interests, and very little of the sort of fundamental disagreements which create conflict. China's growing degree of international integration since its market-oriented reforms in the late 1970s means that it shares with the United States an interest in the health of the international system of trade and finance, and in economic growth around the world.
Moreover, China and the United States are set to become the world's two largest economies over the coming decades. A study conducted by the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations projects that the American and Chinese economies will represent 39 perecent of the word economy in 2015 and 46 percent in 2035. Because China and America will become the two leaders of the world economy in the coming decades it will be extremely difficult for these two nations to address shared concerns such as third world development and the removal of barriers to trade without a policy of cooperation.
In addition to this, because the United States and China are both threatened by terrorism and economic disruption, they will both share an interest in rebuilding failed states and maintaining international stability. Cooperation on this issue will be particularly crucial, because Europe's chronically low birth rates will create a long term demographic crisis that will force other countries to take up the slack on global security policy.
As an August 2002 article in "The Economist" magazine pointed out, "If Europeans are unwilling to spend what is needed to be full military partners of America now, when 65-year-olds amount to 30 percent of the working-age population, they will be even less likely to do more in 2050, when the proportion of old people will have doubled." With this in mind, America must work with a rising Chinese power if it is to still have a strong partner to assist in the maintenance of global security.
While these interests will draw China and the United States together in the coming decades, many critics still maintain that China's authoritarian government and confrontational approach to Taiwanese autonomy make it an inherent adversary of the United States. These critics should remember that a policy of confrontation is much more likely to lead to political or military conflict than is a policy of engagement and cooperation. As professor Lawrence Lau of Stanford University warns, "The expectation of whether China is friend or foe of the U.S. in the long run is largely self-fulfilling. Thus U.S.-China relations must be carefully managed by both countries to prevent it from spiraling out of control."
Moreover, fears that China's new Taiwanese anti-succession law signals a new, more aggressive foreign policy are largely unfounded. Indeed, as the New Straits Times of Malaysia wrote on March 17, "the law contains virtually nothing that is new. It is a reiteration of Chinese policy that is well-known to Taiwan and the United States."
In the end, both China and the United States will be much better off if they can find a way to avoid confrontation and encourage cooperation on the resolution of important international problems. Thus, regardless of what alarmists may say, the Chinese dragon and Uncle Sam may very well be partners, not competitors, over the coming years.
Adam Keith is a Cavalier Daily associate editor. He can be reached at akeith@cavalierdaily.com
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