DURING both of his presi-dential campaigns, George W. Bush successfully played the part of a simplistic straight shooter. He may not have been the sharpest knife in the drawer (so the story went), but he was the guy you would not only want to share a drink with, but could put your trust in as well.
But ever since Bush and members of his administration began beating the drum for regime change in Iraq and insisting vehemently (and with highly questionable evidence) that this was the next front of the war on terror, that facade of trustworthiness has slowly started to crumble. It held through the last election thanks to a carefully crafted campaign. However, by stubbornly insisting that things are going swimmingly in Iraq despite reports to the contrary, and by flaunting a private accounts plan for Social Security that won't come close to fixing it, the Bush team is eroding what's left of its credibility. The results aren't going to be pretty.
When asked recently for his opinion on Iraq, Bush responded that he was "pleased with the progress there," citing events such as the national elections held in January. In his most recent weekly radio address, he conceded that the process was "difficult" but still confidently projected that the mission would end in "great triumph." Even more optimistic sounding was Vice President Dick Cheney, who described the Iraqi insurgency as being in its "last throes." Days later, those comments were rather flatly contradicted by General John P. Abizaid, Commander of the U.S. Central Command, who testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee that the insurgency's "overall strength is about the same" as it was six months ago and that foreign fighters continue to feed the conflict. Cheney weakly defended his own assessment, giving a dictionary definition of "throes" and claiming, "it can still be a violent period." So while Bush explains how pleased he is with the situation based on events that occurred six months ago, his top general explains how the security situation hasn't improved in six months.
The public isn't buying the president's story. According to a USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll taken from June 16 to 19, nearly six in 10 Americans now oppose the war, up from an even split only three months ago. Pressure is mounting on politicians to start thinking about bringing the troops home. When Bush first began making the case for invading Iraq back in 2002, he succeeded by insisting fervently that doing so was vital to national security, and a scared public believed him. But after two long and costly years of war and a string of hollow claims ranging from WMDs to the insurgency, a not so gullible public is losing its patience.
Similarly, the president's obstinacy is beginning to backfire on the domestic front with his proposal for reforming Social Security. Bush's plan for reform depends on the public believing that there is, indeed, a crisis in the program, so he has turned to the same ploys that helped him originally sell the Iraq war: scare tactics. Just as Saddam was labeled a threat that had to be dealt with immediately, so too has the Bush administration declared Social Security to be a system on the verge of collapse. But the plan for private retirement accounts that Bush has been advocating so vigorously in conjunction with such a message will not make the system fiscally sound, and Bush knows it. Social Security will be fixed either by changing entitlements or the taxes that fund them, and once again the public is not proving as naïve as Bush might have liked. Despite his coast-to-coast advertising, public support for the plan recently dropped to 25 percent, according to a June 17 poll by the New York Times and CBS News.
Bush's stubborn insistence that there has been substantive progress in Iraq and on acceptance of his proposal for private accounts is losing him the confidence of the American people. There will likely be consequences. A bipartisan group of legislators in Congress has already called for a timetable for troop removal from Iraq, and their numbers will only swell unless Bush can make clear that even though progress in Iraq has not been stellar, to pull out prematurely would not only doom democracy's chances in Iraq but create an even greater threat to American security than Saddam Hussein ever was. Additionally, by insisting that private accounts are the answer to Social Security's woes, Bush is generating resistance to any reform and distracting from the real (if far off) problems with the system. If Bush wants to have a chance of salvaging his agenda, he had better start by really becoming the straight shooter he's always professed to be.
A.J. Kornblith is a Cavalier Dailycolumnist. He can be reached at akornblith@cavalierdaily.com.
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