IT WAS during the winter of 2004 that I had the chance to leave a deputy secretary of state speechless. Richard Armitage was answering questions from the audience at a student conference when I asked him what the U.S. government would do if the Iraqis wanted to establish a constitutional theocracy somewhat similar to that of Iran's. He stood there for about 10 seconds with a blank look on his face before completely dodging the question. It would seem that at the time the Bush administration had no plan for that particular scenario. Unfortunately, the possibility became dangerously close to reality this week as the Iraqis presented to their National Assembly a rushed, incomplete and badly flawed constitution.
Facing decreasing support for the war at home, President Bush has been pressuring the Iraqis to meet an arbitrary deadline for completing the constitution, and the result has been a document that could compromise the entire American mission of ensuring a free and democratic Iraq. This is the wrong, and perhaps the worst, time for Bush to bow to political pressure and rush the Iraqis. He needs a new plan and he needs one fast.
The flawed constitution that was given to the assembly earlier this week was the product of almost entirely Shiite and Kurdish collaboration, leaving the Sunnis, who formerly held power under the Saddam Hussein regime despite their minority status, out of the process until almost the last minute. While the Kurds favor a weak central government and many Shiites favor the enshrinement of Islam as the basis for the entire justice system, the Sunnis unanimously favor a strong central government that could rein in both Kurdish separatism and Shiite theocratic leanings. Shiites and Kurds found that not only do their interests mesh but that they had enough seats on the constitutional committee to completely ignore the Sunni bloc.
The Bush administration, desperate for anything it could call a victory to boost sagging support at home, called the resulting draft an "amazing event." Disaffected Sunnis less than pleased with recent political arrangements have made up the backbone of the insurgency.The entire point of getting the Sunnis involved in the constitutional process was to make sure that their interests could be addressed through politics rather than violence. As this draft makes little attempt to do that, for Bush to give it his stamp of approval was utterly counterproductive. For Bush to be able to get American troops out of Iraq, he needs a politically satisfied insurgency, but in the hustle to move the process along he might end up sacrificing the secular democracy he went there to establish.
As it currently stands, the constitution gives Islamic clerics a great deal of influence over the courts. In addition to establishing Islam as the official religion of Iraq, the document could allow for the establishment of religious courts in which judges would have a great deal of freedom to declare laws inconstant with the laws of Islam, according to many secular Iraqis who have voiced concerns over the new constitution. In addition, the text contains passages that could be used to infringe upon the rights of women, a facet the Bush administration had been previously keen to prevent. The section reserving a quarter of the National Assembly for women has been labeled transitional and carries uncertain legal force. Also, the constitution only requires mandatory education up through the elementary level, which is all that many women in Iraq are likely to receive. Finally, religious control over the courts and the power to settle personal disputes would almost certainly curtail the rights of women even further. This is the constitution that American soldiers are dying everyday to install.
Despite his frequent pep talks to the nation about "staying the course" until the Iraqis can run their own government, Bush's attempts to ensure that the process moves along could compromise the entire operation. Iraqi leaders from all three sects need more time to address the numerous problems with this constitution and Bush needs to lift the intense pressure to finish he has placed upon them in order to satisfy politicians at home. The interim constitution containing this deadline, which was insisted upon by an impatient Washington, has already been amended once. With Bush's blessing and encouragement it could be adjusted again, this time allowing Iraqi leaders to fully finish their task.
Though such a move would have political repercussions at home for Bush, they could be largely minimized by fully explaining that pushing the Iraqis now could make the mission a failure. He must decide between the lesser of two political evils, but the choice is a clear one. I doubt Bush wants to have to explain to the parents of fallen soldiers why their children died to establish an Iranian-style theocracy. I sure wouldn't.
A.J. Kornblith's column appears Friday in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at akornblith@cavalierdaily.com.
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