The U.S. Census Bureau has officially accepted the City of Charlottesville's challenge to its 2004 Census population estimate and increased the City's estimated population, according to city officials.
Officials stated that the City's Department of Neighborhood Development Services had filed the challenge in September after the Bureau's population estimate showed a 3,494-person drop in Charlottesville's population between 2000 and 2004.
As a result of the challenge, the Bureau has increased the estimate of the City's population from 36,605 to 40,745, which results in a population increase of 1.6 percent since the formal 2000 U.S. Census.
"I think it was just quite a surprise when the census came back earlier this year and they said the City had lost residents which, just looking around, you know that would almost be impossible," said Ric Barrick, Charlottesville interim director of communications.
Barrick said it was important to the City that the population estimate was more accurate because, in some cases, the amount of state and federal funding the City receives is based upon the City's population count. According to Barrick, as far as economic development is concerned, it doesn't reflect positively upon a city if it appears to be "bleeding people."
"The original estimate of 36,605 would have been almost a ten percent population drop, which would have been huge," Barrick said. "In reality, it's about a two percent increase over that four year period, so we just wanted to make sure the right story was told."
Barrick added that he was not sure what the cause was for this estimation discrepancy of over 4,000 City residents but said he suspects it has to do with counting University students.
"We surmise it has to do with students at U.Va. because a lot of times when you have a large university that takes up a good portion of your population, the students that live off Grounds are here one year and gone the next year, so we suspect they were undercounted," Barrick said.
Barrick said students who live on Grounds at the University are not counted in the City census, but students living in off-Grounds housing should be counted, which can prove to be a difficult task.
Because the 2004 population count was merely an estimate, as compared to the official door-to-door census done every 10 years, Barrick said he believes it was easy for students to "fall through the cracks."
The population discrepancy was discovered when the City compared the estimate generated by the Bureau with the estimate from the Weldon Cooper Center at the University, said Achsah Carrier, research associate of the demographic section at the Center.
Carrier said the Center produces an annual population estimate for the City based on information such as the number of driver's licenses, building permits and children enrolled in schools, which is then applied to a mathematical model. For national censuses that simply estimate the population, such as the one conducted in 2004, Carrier said the Bureau also uses a mathematical model, although it is different from the one employed by the Center.
Carrier said when the Center's population estimate for 2004 was compared with the estimate from the Bureau, there was a "considerable difference," which prompted the City to appeal to the Bureau.
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