IMAGINE walking by a flyer threatening the lives of you and your family if you were to vote. As you are reading it, in the distance you hear an explosion and horrifying screams. This sort of unnerving environment is precisely what the Iraqi people are facing as they prepare to vote on a constitutional referendum this Saturday. Because of minimal approval requirements and intimidation by Iraqi insurgents, the upcoming vote holds virtually no legitimacy in the eyes of many Iraqis since so few votes are needed for approval and countless citizens will not even vote. Without widespread support, the only results of the vote will be more violence and death.
If approved, the legitimacy of the referendum will likely be questioned. In order for the referendum to be rejected, two-thirds majority in three of Iraq's 18 provinces must reject the referendum. Put another way, a tiny majority across all Iraq could approve the referendum and several provinces could overwhelmingly reject it, yet the constitution would still pass. Minimal standards were set by the assembly to ensure passage. The passing of the vote is viewed as a key step in legitimizing the government, but what sort of democracy would be legitimized? The United States has allowed, perhaps even encouraged, the referendum to be passed more easily to substantiate the long occupation and the loss of many soldiers in Iraq.
The constitution was drafted by a parliament that was elected this past January. The Sunnis, which make up about 20 percent of Iraq's population, boycotted the elections and were not heavily represented during the drafting process. Not surprisingly, the Sunnis hold major objections to the constitution and stand as the major barrier for its approval.
The constitution calls for a loose federation of provinces, drawing parallels to our own failed Articles of Confederation. By allowing for regional autonomy provisions, the Sunnis fear the Kurds will occupy the northern part of the country, while the Shi'ites will be clustered in the south. The Sunnis will be deprived of access to oil resources in the center of the nation and will grow poor quickly. Undoubtedly, the Shi'ites and the Kurds exploited the absence of the Sunnis in the legislature by drafting a constitution that they knew the Sunnis would oppose. Yesterday, some amendments were made in hopes of compromise, but many Sunni parties still reject the deal.
Unfortunately, many Sunnis will not even cast votes for the constitution. Groups wishing to boycott the elections have threatened reprisal to anyone who participates in the referendum in flyers scattered across the nation. Incidents of bombings have been reported with greater frequency in the last several weeks, with many dead in their wake. These bombings validate the threats made to potential voters, causing pandemic fear throughout Iraq.
Though approval of the referendum could backfire, officials fear the worst if it is rejected. The Iraqi government will begin from scratch with new elections and a new constitution. Since so much rests on this vote, some fear that if it is rejected, the Kurds and Shi'ites will turn to violence against the Sunnis in an all-out civil war. Like the intimidation of the insurgents, fear of Kurd and Shi'ite retaliation may keep Sunnis away from the polls.
The Iraqi government has tried to counter the insurgents with a series of measures. Among them include the declaration of a national holiday, the closing of borders and increased security. Although over 70,000 Iraqi police and soldiers are scattered across the nation, U.S. generals have said only about 500 to 600 of these can fight independently. After years of violence, the Iraqi people will not be fooled into thinking such insignificant measures will make the polls safe.
Though the referendum is likely to be passed, the United States lacks the foresight to see the consequences of an illegitimate constitution. The Sunnis, largely ignored throughout the "democratic" processes, will respond the only way that will garner attention, through violence and anger. Gen. John Abizaid, head of Central Command, admitted, "A vote for the constitution doesn't mean we're headed for peace and prosperity. Iraq is going to be a pretty difficult security environment for a while."
Though Saturday's vote is crucial, the following weeks will show the true nature of the referendum. By looking back over the past year, we will see the roots of the problem began long ago. Perhaps the only solution is to begin anew with proper representation in the legislature and a constitution that will serve as a true national agreement. Adequate requirements for approval of the constitution would be made, allowing a legitimate democracy to be form. The costs of such a process would be enormous, both economically and politically. Instead, we are left with a makeshift democracy desperately trying to authenticate itself.
Rajesh Jain is a Cavalier Daily Viewpoint writer.
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