AS WE go about our business, a pandemic that threatens to kill millions is gathering steam. As we speak, scientists are crying Cassandra about the bird flu and the growing threat of a worldwide pandemic. The tepid response by world leaders is proof that the international organizations set up to manage crises are woefully inadequate to meet the needs of our rapidly globalizing world.
The inadequacy of the international response is especially disheartening considering the grave threat that the virus could hold for the world and the fact that authorities have known about the virus for some time now. The first human cases of the bird flu occurred in Hong Kong in 1997, when a small outbreak left 18 infected and six dead. Currently the outbreak is growing worse in Asia, with 60 deaths being reported among poultry workers in Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia. Although the virus cannot currently spread from human to human, it has now spread as far as Hungary. Epidemiologists are urgently warning the world that the virus' high degree of mutation could soon allow it to be transmitted between humans. The Washington Post cited a soon-to-be-released report from the federal government that warns that as many as 1.9 million Americans could die in the event of a bird flu outbreak.
In the face of this impending calamity, the response of government authorities has been less than urgent. Despite the calm assurances from White House officials that the government has the situation under control, the reality is much different on the ground. A statement cited by CNN released by six Democratic Senators on Oct. 7 noted that, while other nations have ordered enough anti-viral medication to treat between 20 and 40 percent of their populations, the U.S. federal government has only ordered enough to treat less than two percent of Americans.
While this deficiency does point out that America's model of weak government fails to respond to crises, in reality, there is a much deeper issue at work. While the virus festers in East Asia, national governments have done little more than grasp at the limited supply of anti-viral medications in a vain attempt to shelter their own populations from the bird flu.
The madness of this system is made clear by the fact that the outbreak itself could be prevented if an effective international health system were in place to concentrate resources to prevent the spread of the virus from its origin. On Aug. 25, the BBC reported about a dour simulation, conducted by group of epidemiologists, that was endorsed by the World Health Organization. The simulation noted that a global outbreak of the virus could be prevented through swift administering of anti-virals to the most heavily affected areas in East Asia.
Although such a response could save the lives of millions of people, it would be impossible to administer such a program in the poor countries where this virus originates, given the lack of resources available to the World Health Organization. In fact, the WHO is so understaffed that it is relying on a network of volunteers under the Global Outbreak Alert Response Network to administer the response to the outbreak. The BBC article noted that even the WHO admits that it would be unable to control such an outbreak given its current resources, and that an outbreak is ultimately inevitable given the current conditions.
With all this in mind, it is crucial that world leaders finally get serious about adopting a real system of international crisis response. In the end, even if the bird flu epidemic proves to be more innocuous than is currently expected, it is only a matter of time before an outbreak arises that kills millions and shakes the very foundation of our current society to its core.
National leaders have a moral obligation to finally take the threat of an international outbreak seriously and strengthen the WHO so it can respond to the next outbreak. By providing the resources and the authority to the WHO to respond to future crises, national leaders can take a major step toward guarding the safety of millions of citizens around the world.
If they fail in this task, the blood of millions of victims will be on their hands.
Adam Keith is a Cavalier Daily associate editor. He can be reached at akeith@cavalierdaily.com.
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