The Virginia men's basketball team is hot; winners of three ACC games in a row and tied for second in the conference standings. Unfortunately, the Wahoos' next two games are on the road against the two top teams in the ACC.
First up is Duke this Saturday. Before the season began (and maybe even recently as a few weeks ago) many people, including yours truly, penciled this game in as a loss. However, judging from the play of the Cavaliers and the recent demonstration that Duke -- believe it or not -- is not perfect, it is safe to say that Virginia has a shot at winning this one.
Now keep in mind there is not a very good chance of the 'Hoos pulling out a victory this weekend, and that is not to slight the team. They are playing a Duke squad that is arguably the best team in the country in possibly the most difficult place to play. That is not a good start. However, as one delves a little deeper into this game, possibilities start to arise.
When talking about Duke, one must start with their star sharp-shooter J.J. Redick. Clearly, Redick is an immense talent and gifted scorer, and, despite Virginia's best efforts, he will score some points. Shutting down Redick is nearly impossible; however, forcing Redick out of his game is a realistic goal.
Virginia has two tall, athletic swingmen in Adrian Joseph and Mamadi Diane. If these two players can keep constant pressure on Redick and force him to drive rather than rain three-pointers, the Cavaliers' odds improve. Granted, Redick can score driving to the basket, but he also is more prone to turning the ball over, which plays into the Wahoos' hands.
Speaking of turnovers, Duke has a freshman point guard who is averaging 4.2 turnovers per ACC contest. Greg Paulus is a very talented player and will undoubtedly be a menace for Virginia hoopsters for years to come, but, for now, he is a freshman, and Virginia should aim to keep the ball in his hands.
This is especially true in the most critical moments of the game. The Wahoos need to pressure Paulus and deny the ball to anyone else on the floor, consequently forcing Paulus to try to make the play rather than being able to rely on one of the clutch seniors.
This alludes to the key to upsetting Duke: keep the ball out of Sheldon Williams' hands. Against Georgetown, Williams only attempted eight shots and two free throws and ended the game with a meager four points.
This is easier said than done, but Virginia has proven they can handle good big men well. A scheme similar to the one used against North Carolina's Tyler Hansborough must be employed. This consisted of the man guarding him, often Larynus Mikaulauskas, to be physical and try to deny him the ball. When Hansborough got the ball, the other big man immediately came on a double team.
Against Duke, this will be trickier, because their other starting forward, Lee Melchioni, is an excellent shooter. The Cavaliers must have excellent perimeter rotation off the ball to prevent Duke from getting open three-point shots, something they thrive on.
The most fail-proof way to stop Sheldon Williams, though, is to get him into foul trouble. This means Jason Cain and Larynus Mikaulauskas must be very aggressive offensively and seek to draw fouls from Williams. If Williams gets into foul trouble, Duke's lack of depth will come into play. Since DeMarcus Nelson has been out, only six Duke players have played regular minutes.
Even if all of this goes to plan, Virginia needs to put up some points. Unlike Miami and North Carolina, Duke will make the wide open three-point attempts they get, which means Virginia must keep pace with their scoring.
Finally, there will be times during the game when Virginia will be struggling and in jeopardy of letting things get out of hand. At these moments, Sean Singletary must take over the game like he did against Miami. At these points, and during most of play, the game will be in his hands, and I would not wish it any other way.
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