My dad and I firmly believe there are two ways to pick the winner of a Super Bowl, or any sporting event, if your team is not in the game. First, carefully analyze the spread and the matchups. Next, develop a theory that applies to the game, such as, "Team X will win if they don't turn the ball over." Then, wager against someone else who does the same thing, except with a different theory like, "If Team Y rushes for 150 yards, they'll win."
The person that wins can claim they are a genius and insist that the other guy should have seen it coming all along. This is fun during the regular season, but, come playoff time, it is simply not effective. There is too much at stake.
Picking Strategy Number Two: Pick the team that will cause the most misery to the people that you know and care about. If your team isn't in it, you should actively root for the maximal level of misery for people you have to interact with daily.
Now, I'm picking the Seahawks because I have a very close friend who is a total yinzer when it comes to the Steelers. (Note: Google "yinzer." At some point in your life, you will meet a yinzer, and you will immediately hit it off so long as the word yinzer makes an appearance in the conversation). Therefore, I have a vested interest in the Seahawks winning. I would rather drown in Bill Cowher's saliva than hear the words "Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers" from my yinzer friend.
Here is how Dad is applying the test. He doesn't have to spend time with my yinzer. He has met him several times, and will probably see him a few times after I graduate. However, he will not have to deal with the immediate aftermath. Rather, there is a certain person who lives in our town who is from Seattle who my dad never liked. My dad hasn't spoken to this person in almost 10 years simply because their paths just haven't crossed. However, his dislike is still so strong that he has conjured up enough dislike of Seattle to root for the Steelers. Somewhere out there, he knows this person is watching, and he wants them unhappy.
And while I'm on the subject of my dad, he wins Joke of the Week: "Isiah Thomas should be fired. He chooses to sexually harass a 43-year-old woman with kids and not a Knick City Dancer? No wonder he makes terrible trades and free agent signings. What a moron. No eye for talent."
But I digress.
In short, find the people who have something at stake, and then pick the other team. It's the only way you'll be happy with yourself during the off-season. But, just because I have a few lines left, and I did get 58 percent of my picks this year against the spread, I'll throw you all a bone and give you my version of theory number one.
The Seahawks have a tremendous offensive line with three Pro Bowl starters (which is a huge reason Shaun Alexander doesn't have a contract for next season; 28 TDs or not, with that kind of blocking, he's not worth breaking the bank over). But the line has pretty limited experience playing against 3-4 defenses. The entire concept of the 3-4 is to confuse the offense by blitzing like crazy. If the Seahawks are effective at scheming against Joey Porter crashing from the outside and Troy Polumalu crashing from everywhere, they win. If not, yikes.
On the other side of the ball, I'm borrowing a page from Steve Young: Throw the freaking ball, Cowher! I know it's not Steelers football, but Big Ben just beat all three AFC Pro Bowl quarterbacks on the road. He has a shot to make it four against Hasselback. (Over/under on how long before Hasselback is doing Hair Club For Men spots: three weeks). Let the pass set the run up.
But the bottom line is this: I don't care how hot the Steelers are, the Seahawks are getting four points. Throw in the yinzer factor and it's an easy choice.
Seahawks 31, Steelers 28. Enjoy the big game everybody.
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