HOWEVER amusing it might be to watch your neighbors squabble, deep down we all know that their arguing can only be bad for everyone. This is even more evident when the neighbor is in fact an unstable country trying to figure out who its next leader will be. For Americans, this neighbor is Mexico. The ongoing election controversy in Mexico has unfortunately brought to light some of the cracks in the Mexican democratic system, with supporters of leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador protesting in the streets and threatening further insurrections after conservative Felipe Calderon's apparent victory in July's election.
Democracy is a feeble institution. One of the key things that sets democracy apart from every other form of government is the peaceful transition of power from one ruling group to the other -- a transition that it easy to abuse. Though even in the United States we have faced questions over who rightfully won an election and which party will take over the various components of our government, there has never really been a serious threat of the social turmoil or political instability like that which now faces Mexico.
In order to truly understand what is going on, one has to look a little deeper into the Mexican political and economic situation. According to the CIA World Factbook, approximately 40 percent of Mexican citizens live below the poverty line. Though the Mexican economy has been growing in recent years -- a modest three percent in 2005 -- there is still a great deal of economic disparity and a good deal of infrastructure building needs to be done to maintain that growth.
Continued economic growth in the long term, however, is not usually at the forefront of the voter's mind. After all, telling someone that things will be better in 10 or 20 years does not sound too good when the other candidate is saying he will help you right now. As a result, Calderon has been forced to take a step back and try to appeal more to that forty percent who want help today. Ceci Connolly of The Washington Post points out that "all of a sudden, the conservative who ran on promises to continue the policies of President Vicente Fox is talking about increasing cash handouts to poor." This despite the fact that on Monday the Mexican court system dismissed claims of election fraud, thus "handing almost certain victory to conservative candidate Felipe Calderon" according to the New York Times.
So what does all of this mean for Mexico and for the United States? For starters, Calderon is being forced to divert more resources to help shore up his position with the poorer, more leftist wing of the Mexican politic. Though this will certainly have a short term benefit for many Mexican citizens, the long term economic consequences are less optimistic. Calderon and the Mexican government need to make heavy investments in economic infrastructure if they are to maintain growth and create enough better paying jobs so that the Mexican people can try to climb out of poverty.
The real test for Mexico, however, is whether its political system can continue to withstand the challenges of Obrador. Though it seems more and more certain that Calderon will be the winner, Obrador has the support of a large portion of the Mexican population. This is especially true in Mexico City, which is home to over 18 million people. Though Calderon is beginning to concede on some social issues in order to appeal to this group, the real question is whether Obrador will back down or if he will continue his fight to take control of the Mexican government. Obrador's supporters threaten to undermine the stability of the Mexican government and its ability to bring economic change.
For the United States, Mexico's situation is a problem both in the short term and in the long term. In the short term, instability in the country puts a large powder keg in our backyard that could go off at any time. In the long term, continued economic problems in Mexico not only hurt our trade with the country, but will continue to drive more Mexican citizens over the border to seek jobs in the United States. In addition to the enormous security problem illegal immigration creates, the continued influx of these immigrants and their families greatly increases the strain our own social and educational systems.
Though it is unlikely the Mexican people or government would welcome U.S. assistance in the election process, there are still a few lessons to impart -- namely the importance of a peaceful transition of power. Also, the United States can work to help strengthen the Mexican economy. This will not only slow the pace of illegal immigration, it will also strengthen the U.S. economy through increased trade and investment opportunities.
To go back to the original analogy, our neighbor Mexico is having some internal squabbles. Though there is perhaps little we can do to smooth things over in the short term, nonetheless we can nonetheless help prevent this from happening again by investing in the country's long-term economic position. After all, a back yard is supposed to be a peaceful place, not somewhere you go to listen to others fight.
Allan Cruickshanks is a Cavalier Daily associate editor. He can be reached at acruickshanks@cavalierdaily.com.
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