On Aug. 14, a ceasefire was agreed upon for the Israel-Hezbollah War. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared victory, a sentiment which was echoed by George W. Bush. Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, also claims to have won the war. The reality is, however, a bit more complex. Israel has certainly weakened Hezbollah, but has fallen far short of eliminating or even disarming it. Hezbollah started the war with an unprovoked act of aggression on Israeli soil. However, because of the confluence of military and political ineptitude, Israel has left the region in a muddle that will be very difficult to remedy. The Israeli political establishment needs to accept that they are no longer fighting nation-states and must undertake badly needed reforms of the Israeli army.
Israel's inability to fight Hezbollah effectively stemmed from its two, self-imposed handicaps. The Israeli Defense Force makes every effort to avoid hurting noncombatants. The air force (IAF) even drops pamphlets in Arabic to inform residents that an attack is coming, thereby losing the element of surprise. The Israeli right is quick to deride its leaders for fighting with "one hand tied behind their back." But fighting an enemy who shows no respect for human life does not mean that one should try to emulate it.
The second handicap, which has been much more detrimental to the war effort, is Israel's aversion to letting soldiers die. Israel is unique in that Israelis are willing to accept civilian casualties, but cannot stomach soldiers dying. The ghost of Lebanon wars past made Israelis particularly reluctant to occupy any of Southern Lebanon, but how can Israel hope to uproot Hezbollah without using ground troops? Hezbollah's fighters are well-armed by Iran and often already have "combat" experience. Sending in ground troops does mean Israeli soldiers will die, but it is the only way effectively to remove weapons and corner Hezbollah while minimizing Lebanese casualties.
Israel's fear of actually using its own army was only compounded by the fact that Dan Halutz is the IDF's chief of staff. As the top military leader in Israel, he was the one making the strategic decisions. His last job as commander of the IAF left him with far too much confidence in airpower alone. Israeli pilots may be trained to handle 10-on-1 dogfights, but that is not very useful when they are trying to bomb specific rooms. Halutz was also probably under pressure from Olmert to avoid using ground troops in order to maintain the war's popularity. Olmert's Kadima party did much worse in elections than expected, and he is far from being an inspiring leader -- a stark contrast to Ariel Sharon, who was viewed as the "father of the Israeli people." This led to a war heavy on bombs and light on infantry which is not the way to fight a terrorist organization hiding among the people, particularly when the international community only has so much patience.
As a top US general recently stated, the IDF has been "living on fumes since 1967." The Israeli army is equipped with some of the best tanks and planes in the world and used them to great effect in previous wars against Egypt and Syria. All this expensive military hardware is not the best way to combat non-state actors (i.e. terrorists) who can hide among the people. The best way to combat Hezbollah is through well-trained infantry working carefully with both the Mossad and special-ops. Mobile troops can enforce law and order and, when armed with good intelligence, take out Hezbollah fighters. This is the key to removing weapons caches hidden in ordinary Lebanese homes and killing terrorists without hurting civilians. Accomplishing these goals means painful structural reform of the IDF -- stripping generals of their expensive playthings and telling them everything they know is wrong -- but putting off these long overdue reforms only makes them harder.
The end result of weeks of poor military and political planning is the current muddle. A very tenuous ceasefire prevails but, as of yet, lacks enforcement. If Israel had sent in ground troops from the beginning, Hezbollah could be on its last legs. As it stands now, Israel has only taken out most of Hezbollah's long range rockets. But with Nasrallah riding high and Iran happy to provide weapons, it's only a matter of time until the Katyusha rockets rain down on Haifa once again. Hopefully Israel will have learned its lesson and be prepared.
Josh Levy's columns appear Mondays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at jlevy@cavalierdaily.com.
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