A decent but unspectacular start to the season last week. I nailed the Notre Dame and LSU games, totally botched the Florida State and UNC picks and pushed the OU game. This week offers some promise, although I've got two road underdogs on the list -- risky. Anyway, no social commentary this time, just the games to watch.
Ohio +17 @ Rutgers
The best part about week three football might be the meteoric falls for hot teams like Rutgers. Doesn't it all seem a little too good to be true right now for the Scarlet Knights? They beat an ACC opponent on the road and shutout a Big Ten foe at home.
Having suffered through 21 years of Rutgers coverage as a New Jersey resident, I can tell you that this is not a football program with great karma. Ohio's gameplan is to stuff the run and create turnovers -- Rutgers is a terror on the ground but is also prone to giving the ball away.
It's hard to see the Bobcats winning this one, but if they can frustrate the Rutgers run game and force a few turnovers, they'll cover.
Navy +3 @ Stanford
You know how in NCAA for Xbox/PS2 when you reach year six of the dynasty, your team is at its absolute apex (you recruit only 4 and 5-stars and cut anyone not in the high-70s)? Let's say you schedule a Division I-AA team just for fun. Then you go ahead and decide that you're going to pad the running back's stats, so you run the HB Sprint or the HB Counter every play, bounce to the outside (because naturally your 99 overall tackle seals his block every time), turn the corner and run for at least 20 yards?
By the end of the game, you're up 91-0 and the running back has accounted for all of your offensive production, which is probably close to 650 yards.
You know that type of game?
Yeah, that's what Navy is going to do to Stanford. It's going to be ugly, since both teams are terrible (Stanford lost to SJSU last week, Navy hung on to beat UMass), but look for run, run, run.
The Midshipmen and their triple option are fourth in the country in rushing offense (335.5 y/g) while the Cardinal is dead last in rushing defense (320 y/g). Fun!
Florida State -4.5 vs. Clemson
It's official. Clemson is back in full-fledged "lose two-three winnable games for the most ridiculous reasons" mode. We've seen this before. Last week, a blocked extra point in overtime ended up being the difference at Boston College.
Now the little Bowden has to get his team ready for big Bowden's Florida State in Tallahassee. And while I may have been dead wrong about Florida State last week, I feel good here.
The 'Noles looked off in week one, but everyone's working out the kinks in the first game. Then they slumbered through the Troy game, getting saved only by a late turnover.
Well, now they've got something to focus on in a crucial ACC divisional game with, in theory, all of their parts running smoother.
Combine FSU's talent inevitably coming together with Clemson's propensity to bungle winnable games, and you'll be happy you laid the points.
Wisconsin -14 vs. San Diego State
I like a solid Big Ten school going up against a middling Mountain West school.
This is a game where Wisconsin can dictate the pace, grind out scores and capitalize on inevitable Aztec miscues. Basically, you should be happy you'll be at Scott Stadium so you don't have to watch what will probably be a snoozer.
With veteran John Stocco at the helm, you can count on a steady offensive attack from the Badgers, and more importantly, one without many big mistakes. The term "game manager" applies here.
SDSU, meanwhile, has a QB controversy like Virginia, with their backup looking sharp in the fourth quarter of last week's loss to UTEP.
Wisconsin will wear down the visitors and win comfortably.
Oregon -4.5 vs. Oklahoma
Another 3:30 start here, I actually wish I could catch this one as it happens.
I'm siding with the Ducks here for a few reasons. First, Oregon is a talented rushing team and OU hasn't shown much ability to stop anyone so far. They also have next-level passing weapons.
Second, I don't trust Sooners QB Paul Thompson in a big road game yet. In two games, Thompson and the offense have struggled to get going early before finally making some plays down the stretch. When you're in a place like Autzen, starting off slow means that you may never catch up.
And if Thompson starts forcing passes, he'll head right for Pick City.
This will be a big-time barometer game for both schools -- Oregon has games at ASU and Cal next while Oklahoma has Texas in two weeks.
Oregon wins by six.
Record last week: 2-2-1
Season record: 2-2-1
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