THE LAST time I saw Mark Warner, he was standing at the front of an enormous receiving line, shaking hands and posing for photos with the dedicated admirers who had waited patiently for their few brief moments with the former governor. He stayed on his feet for hours, not once stopping to take a breather while there were still supporters who wanted to meet him. It was an inspiring demonstration of the perseverance that many there and around the country thought would carry him to the White House.
Perhaps it was that sense of drive that made it so shocking to everyone when Warner announced earlier this month that he would not seek the Democratic nomination for the presidency in the 2008 election. He cited personal reasons, saying, "While politically this appears to be the right time to take the plunge-at this point, I want to have a real life." Warner is likely right that he's throwing away an opportunity by bowing out now, but Democrats who pinned their hopes on him should take heart. Warner's not going anywhere, and we should expect to see him back in the spotlight before long.
The suddenness of Warner's exit caused many commentators to question his motives, with some initially wondering if there was a skeleton in the closet somewhere that he wouldn't be able to hide from the glaring spotlight of a presidential election. But Larry Sabato, who spoke with Warner the morning of his announcement, said in an interview, "In my conversation with Mark Warner, and in talks since with easily a dozen people close to him, I've come to believe essentially that the explanation he gave is the correct one." Other commentators thought that perhaps Warner quit due to pessimism about his chances, but Sabato dismissed this theory as well. "I've been all over the nation in the past year, and every good political observer I've consulted believed Warner was well positioned to make a run at Hillary Clinton for the nomination."
Warner's reputation as a centrist Democrat who could deliver in red states like Virginia did much to boost his credibility as a possible not-Hillary candidate in 2008. This made him an increasingly useful asset for fundraising for other candidates around the country. He claims that he's headlined 86 events in 25 states this election cycle, thereby raising over $7.3 million for Democratic candidates. His political action committee, the Forward Together PAC, claims to have raised over nine million, the highest amount raised by any federal leadership PAC this year.
Now that he has bowed out of the presidential race, he'll likely face a loss of both political and financial clout, at least in the short-term. The donors who were lining up behind him and following his lead will likely start taking their cues from other potential nominees who might be able to stand up to Clinton, like fellow Southerner John Edwards, D-N.C., or fellow former red state governor and current Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind. Once the dust settles from the whirlwind of political activity following his announcement, Warner may be left largely without an active base of support.
Despite all this and despite the plentiful wailing and gnashing of teeth heard from many Virginia Democrats, it would be a blunder to reckon Warner out of the picture for good, both here and nationally. First of all, at age 51 he's still a young guy compared to many in the field. More importantly, the presidency may be the biggest catch coming up soon, but it's far from the only fish in the sea.
Warner explicitly declined to rule out acceptance of a vice-presidential nomination in 2008, and he could make a good moderate counterweight to a more liberal presidential candidate like Edwards. Also, it's been rumored that Sen. John Warner, R-Va., might not seek reelection in 2008, which would provide Mark Warner with another shot at the senate seat he tried to capture in 1996. With one of these offices under his belt, he might make an even more formidable presidential candidate several years down the road.
Of course, things may not work out, and it's a distinct possibility that Warner has thrown away the best shot he'll ever have at the presidency. But that might just suit him fine. As Sabato put it, "You have to be a little bit insane to run for President. Perhaps Mark Warner is just plain sane."
A.J. Kornblith's column appears Mondays in The Cavalier Daily. He is the University Democrats Communications Coordinator, and he can be reached at akornblith@cavalierdaily.com.
Read More
EDITORIAL: Carla Williams deserves her seat at the table
By Editorial Board | YesterdayLooking beyond basketball and football reveals that Virginia Athletics is, in many ways, thriving.
UPADHYAYA: The Great and not-so-Good sides of U.Va.’s 2030 housing plan
By Apal Upadhyaya | 3 days agoInstead of improving the dire state of existing infrastructure, however, the University has shifted attention away from it and chosen to expand.
EDITORIAL: Support low-barrier shelters in Charlottesville
By Editorial Board | 4 days agoInvesting in low-barrier shelters now will pay off in increased stability for the homeless, which will undoubtedly improve the safety of shelters and the community writ large.
