From Charlottesville to Tokyo to Hollywood, all your big money stays and plays with me!
Perfect again last week, but I'm not interested in gloating; gambling gods are a fickle bunch.
Meanwhile, Virginia gets an absolute slap in the face from Vegas, coming in at a 6.5-point underdog to East Carolina Saturday.
Sure we still have a lot of questions, and we're historically a lousy road team, but 6.5 points? Against ECU?
The Pirates (1-3) have losses to Navy and UAB on their schedule and a win over Memphis. They hung with West Virginia for a half two weeks ago and now they're giving nearly a touchdown?
I'm not buying that we're that much worse than a lousy Conference USA team.
Both ECU and Virginia are among the 18 worst rushing teams in the country, too, so if the total number of yards gained on the ground breaks 100 it will be a minor miracle.
Texas Tech -4.5 vs. Missouri and
Clemson -17 at Wake Forest
Hmm. Average school in a major conference starts the season 5-0 playing nothing but cupcakes. The national media gives a collective, "Wow, throw out the preseason predictions, maybe Team X is for real!" Then the team in question matches up against real talent or, god forbid, superior talent and gets its doors absolutely blown off. This should sound familiar.
We'll call it the 2004 Virginia Football Corollary. The Cavaliers were 5-0 and three-point underdogs when they visited Florida State nearly two years ago. The line was only 30 points too small.
Virginia was ranked No. 16 to start 2004 but climbed all the way to No. 6 before the FSU debacle. The team shot up in the rankings despite doing nothing to prove they were legitimate -- basically winning the games they were expected to win against bad teams.
Well, I'm applying the theory to Missouri and Wake Forest. It applies on a lesser scale -- neither of these games is a clash of top-10 teams, but it still follows.
Missouri has wins over Murray State (Div. I-AA), Ole Miss (1-4), New Mexico (2-3), Ohio (2-3) and Colorado (0-5). All teams that have probably already made tee times during bowl season.
Wake Forest has beaten Syracuse (3-2), Duke (0-4), Connecticut (2-2), Ole Miss (1-4) and Liberty (Div. I-AA). A better schedule, but still all very winnable games for a decent team.
Vegas has not totally bought into each team's spotless record, either -- the lines seem pretty fair. But, I'll bite and take the Tigers and Demon Deacons to lose the game and lose against the spread.
And mark down Rutgers (5-0) at Pitt on 10/21 for the next surprise team to fall.
Notre Dame -31.5 vs. Stanford
I'm getting kind of tired of picking against the Cardinal, but they just keep exceeding every expectation for ineptitude -- they got shutout by a low-tier Pac-10 team last week. Honestly, at this point you shouldn't need any more reasons to pick against Stanford.
Iowa -11 vs. Purdue
Purdue also championed my 2004 Virginia Football Corollary last weekend, beginning the season 4-0 before losing to Notre Dame.
Now they're stuck on the road again at an Iowa team looking to put the hurt on someone after being stomped on by Ohio State.
Purdue piled up yards and points against Notre Dame's porous defense, but the going will be a bit tougher against the Hawkeyes.
Purdue is careening back to earth, and Iowa wants to regain form at home. Sounds like a winner.
Colorado -4.5 vs. Baylor
The opposite of the 2004 Virginia Football Corollary is what is happening to poor Colorado. They're currently 0-5 and due for a win the same way the above teams are due for a loss. Colorado's defense is too good and coach Dan Hawkins must know that he has to win this game.
Plus, winning against Baylor at home has been a long-standing tradition in the Big 12. No reason to change now.
Last week 5-0
Season: 13-4-3
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