Well, we didn't finish this picks column on the highest of highs (2-3 two weeks ago), but at least it wasn't so bad it prompted people to call in wailing, "I had a life!"
What a fun fall to pick games. There were weeks that were so easy to pick that you may as well have just called the Federal Reserve and asked them to start printing the money for you. Then there were the weeks where having to pick five games was like picking five ways to be tortured -- you'd rather just pass on the whole thing.
The final tally was 33-18-4, which translates to picking games correctly 64.7 percent of the time -- not bad at all. If you pick at a 52.5 percent clip, you push on the vig. So, if you had bet 55 dollars (to win 50 dollars) on each game I picked, you would have been paid out a cool 660 dollars. There's your spring break fund right there, with a little left over for Beach Week.
Let's break down the season:
Weeks one and two (technically weeks two and three of the actual college football season) were tough sledding, opening at a 3-4-3 clip -- that's quite a few ties, good work by Vegas. Weeks three and four cemented my credibility a bit, as I went 10-0 combined. Weeks five and six were reality checks at 3-6-1, but then we just crushed the meat of the schedule. In weeks seven through 10, I compiled a 15-5 mark, before going 2-3 in the final week (there aren't enough games this week to warrant picking five).
But what fun is it if you just analyze everything chronologically? Let's get our hands a little dirty here and dig into the numbers.
We'll start by going through everything by conference. In general, I always tried to include as many ACC games as I was comfortable picking, because I doubted people would be interested in hearing about Sun Belt teams week after week. I don't think I ever made any picks I wouldn't have otherwise for the sake of including the ACC, but it was definitely a tiebreaker -- turns out that was a mistake.
I picked 12 games in which BOTH schools were in the ACC, the most of any conference, and went a paltry 5-7. The Big 12 was my other nemesis; I was 0-3 there.
After that, though, it's all smiles. The Pac-10 leads the charge at 5-0-1 (I'd be remiss not to thank Stanford here), followed by the Big East at 3-0, the SEC and WAC at 2-0, Conference USA at 3-1, Big Ten at 4-3 and MAC at 1-0. In interconference games, I tallied an 8-4-3 record. To sum up: ACC and Big 12, 5-10; rest of conferences, 28-8-4. And enough "Two For the Money" references along the way to make Matthew McConaughey blush.
My top schools? Stanford (4-1), Rutgers (3-0-1) and Houston (3-0). Games involving Clemson were my Achilles heel, as I went 1-3. Pretty much anything else with the ACC was icky too.
Best pick:
Any pick that won, but I was especially happy with the Georgia Tech +9.5 at Virginia Tech pick in week five. That came when everyone was still unsure if the Yellow Jackets were for real, as the large line demonstrates.
Worst pick:
Those Florida State picks in the first two weeks (FSU -30 vs. Troy and FSU -4.5 vs. Clemson, respectively). Those were real groaners. Sept. 6, I wrote, "It's basically just a question of whether or not the Seminoles can score 30 points, because there's no way Troy is scoring in this one." Final score? FSU 24-17. Shmeh.
In week two, I wrote, "While I may have been dead wrong about Florida State last week, I feel good here ... Combine FSU's talent inevitably coming together with Clemson's propensity to bungle winnable games, and you'll be happy you laid the points."
Talk about booking a one-way trip to the woodshed. Clemson won 27-20. Grrrr.
Best prediction:
Tennessee's 2006 season. Sept. 20, I wrote, "So, that will be Tennessee's story of 2006 -- beat the teams they should, lose to the teams they shouldn't [beat]."
While not the boldest call, it proved to be completely accurate: they've lost the three games they were underdogs in (Florida, LSU and Arkansas) while winning each game they were favored to win.
Worst prediction:
Easily my overt pessimism about the Cinderella seasons of Wake Forest and Rutgers. Oct. 4, I opined about the 2004 Virginia Football Corollary and was dead wrong on two of the three teams. Missouri has faded to an 8-4 record after a 6-0 start, but Rutgers and Wake Forest have each continued to impress.
I was very confident Pitt would knock off Rutgers and that Wake Forest would lay down in the second half of the season -- wrong and wrong. Rutgers is one win away from being the Big East's BCS representative while Wake Forest won 10 games this year and will play for the ACC title. So pretty much I totally missed the boat on two potential BCS teams.
Oh well, it's been a fun season entertaining everyone and hopefully providing a little help along the way. If anyone does so poorly on their exams that they decide to pack up shop and move to Vegas, I am available as a consultant.
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