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Cavalier Bracketology

Writing this column was the last thing that I needed to do before my Spring Break could begin. Now that it is in print, I guess that I am free sailing (falling?) toward a Friday morning arrival in Punta Cana, which is located in the Dominican Republic. In case you couldn't tell by the name, Punta Cana isn't exactly a place you would call "classy." I learned this when I tasted my first anti-malaria pill.

Waiting for that trip spurred some brainstorming about the next trip that many Cavalier fans plan to take -- a journey to the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.

So here's some NCAA Tournament seeding, travel and ticketing fodder, in question-and-answer format.

What is Virginia's expected NCAA seeding?

Look for the Cavaliers to be seeded at No. 4, 5, 6 or 7 in the NCAA Tournament. Earning a first-round by in the ACC Tournament with Saturday's win over Georgia Tech thankfully limited Virginia's chances for a royal screw up.

ESPN "Bracketologist" Joe Lunardi has the Cavs as the No. 4 seed in the Midwest region, playing Holy Cross (the probable Patriot League auto-bid) in the first round. Years of experience tell us, however, that Lunardi tosses scenarios against the wall and waits to see what sticks. For that reason I prefer to disregard him more often than not.

My feeling is that if the Cavaliers win four or more ACC games by Selection Sunday (which would require advancing to the ACC championship), they could be as high as a No. 3 seed. It goes without saying that this scenario is highly unlikely.

A more plausible situation for Virginia is 2-3 wins to close the year, resulting in a seed somewhere between fourth and sixth.

One or fewer ACC wins for the Cavaliers before Selection Sunday puts them at No. 7 seed. This, however, is also unlikely.

Who will they play?

A logical picture for the selection committee pits a No. 3 Georgetown squad in the same region as a No. 6 Virginia team.

Another possibility is No. 5 or No. 6 Virginia paired with in-state mid-majors Old Dominion or Virginia Commonwealth University at No. 11 or No. 12. But first, one of these teams must get in.

An ideal scenario for the selection committee (but not for Virginia) combines these two possibilities. It would pit the No. 6 Cavaliers against an in-state mid-major rival in the first-round, with No. 3 Georgetown potentially waiting in the second.

Of course, knowing the committee, all of this logic could be thrown out in favor of matching the No. 4 Cavaliers with No. 13 Oral Roberts.

Where will they play?

The bottom line is that if the Cavaliers continue to play well and earn a No. 4 or No. 5 seed, they are headed to either Spokane, Wash. or Buffalo, N.Y. Every No. 4 and No. 5 seed in this year's tournament will play its first- and second-round games at one of those sites.

If the Cavaliers struggle to end the year and end up at No. 6 or No. 7, however, the sites vary widely.

If Virginia struggles late and receives a No. 6 or No. 7 seed, it will likely play in either Columbus or New Orleans, LA. Other less likely No. 6 and No. 7 locations are Chicago, Winston-Salem, N.C., Lexington, Ky. and Sacramento, Calif.

How can I travel to the first and second rounds?

Several locations are within driving distance; others are not. Below is current travel information. The flights (from kayak.com) assume a departure Wednesday, March 14 and a return flight Sunday, March 18.

Cheapest flights from Charlottesville: Buffalo ($563) or Chicago ($592).

Cheapest flights from Richmond: Columbus ($200), Chicago ($247) and New Orleans ($399).

Cheapest flights from Washington, DC: Chicago ($119), Buffalo ($215) and Sacramento ($418).

Shortest driving times (from Google Maps): Winston Salem (3.5 hours), Columbus (6.5 hours), and Lexington (6.5 hours).

Longest driving times: Sacramento (40 hours), Spokane (38 hours), New Orleans (14 hours), and Chicago (12 hours).

Unless you are going to pay large amounts for flights or are ok driving endlessly, hope for a No. 4 or No. 5 seed in Buffalo, a No. 6 seed in Columbus, a No. 7 seed in Chicago or a No. 7 seed in Winston-Salem.

How can I actually get tickets?

That's obviously the tough part. There will be very limited opportunities to get tickets from U.Va. Athletics. So unless you are pretty confident with your luck, a good option is to check with any season ticket holders at Virginia or any other school playing at the site. It is also worth it to check with collegiate and professional teams who play their regular seasons there.

A final, time-tested strategy is to just head wherever Virginia is playing and attempt to get a ticket there. The tickets are sold as two-day packages. If you're lucky, you could very well catch a fan whose team has lost and wants to sell the remainder of his ticket.

Conclusion?

That's about all we know right now. But the tournament is coming faster than you think, so if you intend to go, stay on it over the next week and a half.

Oh, and have a great Spring Break, everybody. Please wish me luck with this whole "malaria" thing. And the typhoid. And Hepatitis A.

Punta Cana sure sounds like a nice place, huh? The next trip should be much less nerve-wracking. Except while Virginia is playing, of course.

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