SUFFERING from allegations of a nuclear program and involvement in the Iraqi insurgency, Iran has transformed itself into the prime nuisance of the United States and the international community. Yet while many argue that Iran has become more powerful in Middle Eastern affairs recently, its strategic influence in the region is less than what the media portrays. Iran may have grand dreams and aspirations, but it does not have the necessary human and natural resources to achieve them. While we should be wary of Iran's actions, we must be careful also to contextualize them within a wider geopolitical context and realize that they represent the whims of a frustrated nation led by a diplomatically illiterate leader.
Nation-states that isolate themselves internationally and attempt to overturn well-established laws and treaties will have a difficult time making friends and fulfilling important goals. Historian and military author Frederick Kagan explains this theme in "The End of the Old Order," a book that treats Napoleonic France as a rogue state that fundamentally violated the accepted norms in international relations and plunged the European continent into ten years of warfare from 1805 to 1815. Ignoring historical interpretations for responsibility in the Napoleonic Wars, Kagan is, at the very least, correct to recognize that countries extending themselves beyond traditional conventions will face harsh responses. This does not mean their actions are necessarily wrong, but it does explain the contrarian reaction of the international community -- something that Iran has discovered all too well. Iranian President Ahmadinejad may relish the attention, but there is nothing worth savoring about the way he isolates his country.
Fortunately for the world, Iran is comparatively nowhere near as strong as France was in 1805 or as Germany was in 1939. While the two European powers had the capability to inflict unimaginable levels of damage on their enemies, Iran has no such capacity. In fact, Iran's strategic capabilities, by the numbers, are not impressive at all. According to the International Monetary Fund, Iran's GDP in 2005 was $192 billion, far short of Saudi Arabia's $309 billion and Turkey's $362 billion. What about Iran's military posturing? It's just that: pomp and bluster. Two nations in the region (Saudi Arabia with $25 billion and Israel with nearly $10 billion) were among the top 15 military spenders in the world in 2005, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The CIA estimated Iran's defense budget at 3.3 percent of its GDP in 2003, or about $6 billion, but other estimates put it as low as $2 billion.
As if that were not bad enough, the nuclear weapons that Iran allegedly wants will do it no good in a neighborhood already teeming with them. India and Pakistan certainly will not look kindly upon another nuclear competitor right next door. No matter how many nukes Iran thinks it can acquire, nations like India, Pakistan and Israel will always produce more to have a favorable balance of force. Iran could succeed in further militarizing an already militarized region and have nothing to show for it.
This is not to say that we should not worry about Iran at all. Iran is effectively demonstrating how a regional pretender can annoy and even stifle a global superpower. Iraq is currently America's biggest international priority, and Iran, as one of the most important retarding factors, is preventing a resolution to the conflict. Along with our allies, we should continue to pressure Iran. However, we should also acknowledge that Iran is not the ogre often portrayed by Western media. It simply is not that powerful. The same description applies to nations like North Korea and Venezuela -- both very adept at swagger and bravado, but completely clueless about what it takes to be a successful nation-state and to integrate themselves into global politics.
The same basic standards that crowned great nations in the past also decide them now: large and vibrant economies, strong militaries and socially stable environments. For its own sake, Iran must realize that its shortfalls in these categories are far too deep for rhetoric to disguise.
Erald Kolasi's column appears Fridays in The Cavalier Daily. He can be reached at ekolasi@cavalierdaily.com.
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